368 



MR. S. M. JACOB ON 



The diagram below gives the distribution of the rainfall from October to March 

 against the matured crop, with the regression lines. 



(Hi) Sialkot. 



(a) Kharif. 



It seems probable that the data for this and Tahsil Zafarwal are the most reliable 

 of any of the four Tahsils. There is certainly no physical difference, so far as I know, 

 to account for the higher correlations, except perhaps higher rainfall, which in certain 

 instances (vide p. 363 ante) will determine greater coefficients of correlation. 



The regression equations are: — 

 For crop on rain 



C" "575727 R« +36600 

 For rain on crop 



C« = 2614-3 R,< - 12336. 

 The probable error E c — +1467 



From the average of 5 years (1887— 1891) the proportions of unirrigated matured 

 crop in the five circles are as follows : Bharari 26, Nianda 10, Bet 4, Bajwat 4, Charkhri 

 4, and thus we find from the table on p. 48 of the Assessment Report the following 

 percentages of matured crop in the unirrigated area of this Tahsil :-*- 



Rice . . . . . . 6 



Maize 



. . 13 



Jowar 



. . 28 



Cane 



..3 



Cotton 



. . 8 



Fodder 



. . 13 



Others 



. . 29 



Total 



100 



Thus the crops are very diverse, and the same correlation can, of course, only be 

 predicated of another area where the rainfall, physical conditions and proportions of 

 crop are the same as those here. This is an important point, for the correlations for 

 each individual crop have almost certainly a particular value, which it is undoubtedly 

 desirable to investigate. Until this is done the above limitations must be borne in mind. 



The distribution of rainfall and crop are shown in the diagram below: — 



(b) Rabi harvest. 



The regression equations are : - 

 For crop on rain 



C P = 2904-0 ^-1-31001 -q 

 For rain on crop 



C P = 7296-3 Rp-1085 

 The value of E, = +2254. 



