outlay for blister rust control on the national forests will 

 probably be returned (without interest) to the Government 

 through the sale of western white pine stumpage. Because 

 of the broad social and economic purpose behind public 

 investment as compared with private investment, money 

 interest is omitted in analyzing blister rust costs. The 

 social benefit accruing to industrial communities in the 

 form of increased stability is assumed to represent the 

 interest on the public investment. 



At the time of the first attack upon the blister rust 

 problem, it was estimated that control could be achieved 

 at a cost ot $2.50 per acre of western white pme land. This 

 might possibly have been sufficient, it funds had been 

 available to pursue the control work on the scale recorh- 

 mended and to complete the project by 1935. Because 

 of delay, which has allowed the disease to become firmly 

 entrenched, and because ot several other factors growing 

 out ot this, it is estimated a total ot about $8 per acre must 

 be spent before the control will be on a maintenance basis. 

 However, the entire program can still be justified on 

 financial grounds. 



It was pointed out in the chapter on blister rust that 

 if no attempt had been made to control this disease, the 

 losses would range from disastrously complete in young 

 stands to only partial loss in merchantable western white 

 pine timber. For the purpose of calculation, it is assumed 

 that, unless controlled, the disease will eventually take 

 a toll equivalent to complete loss of all western white pine 

 stands under 60 years of age. Many pathologists will 

 consider this a very conservative supposition. 



It is reasonable to weigh the value of the timber saved 

 against the cost ot saving it. Therefore, it is proposed 

 to charge against the stands 1 to 60 years of age all 

 the original outlay plus the later annual expenditure re- 

 quired to protect this investment during the first rotation. 

 The money needed for maintenance following the original 

 outlay has already been estimated at 10 cents an acre. 

 But since 9^ cents, principally spent for reworking cut- 

 over and burned-over areas, is chargeable to the following 

 rotation, maintenance will not rest very heavily upon 

 the crops to be cut in the first 120-year period. 



On the basis of the assumed losses and estimated total 

 costs, a favorable case can be made for blister rust control 

 on the national forests. Two situations will be compared: 

 (1) The net annual revenues in 60 years if no blister rust 

 control has been done; (2) the net annual revenues in 60 

 years it the program recommended by the Forest Service 

 and the Division of Plant Disease Control ot the Bureau 

 of Plant Industry is completed on schedule. 



The annual cost of administering the national-forest 

 land in northern Idaho is 27 cents an acre, not including 

 blister rust control. In round numbers this amounts to 

 $1,800,000 yearly for the whole national-forest area. 

 With no blister rust control program, the western white 



pine revenues would in another 60 years be negligible. 

 The income from other sources, assuming a very limited 

 market for species other than western white pine, might 

 amount to $75,000 yearly. With an income of this size 

 the financial situation in 1999 and thereafter would be 

 thus: 



.•\nnual operating charges $1,800,000 



.'\nnual western white pine revenues (negHgible) 



Annual revenues (other sources) 75,000 



Net cost 1 ,725,000 



This $1,725,000 would represent the net cost of protecting 

 and managing the watersheds, the remaining low-value 

 timber, and the recreational assets. 



If the Government continues to fight blister rust on 

 national-forest lands, the revenues will be greater, but so 

 also will be the expenses. If the present outlay to protect 

 the western white pine of the first rotation is charged in 

 60 installments beginning 60 years from now,^^ and if the 

 annual production of western white pine is 70 million 

 board feet, salable at $6 per M board feet the net annual 

 cost of administering the national forests in this period 

 will be nearly $200,000 less, as shown in the following 

 tabulation: 



Annual operating charges: 



Fire and administration $1,800,000 



Blister rust 170,000 



Stand improvement 70,000 



Total 2,040,000 



Annual revenues: 



Western white pine 420,000 



Other sources 75,000 



Total 495,000 



Net cost 1,545,000 



The allowable cut at that time will obviously depend 

 upon the extent of annual fire losses and other factors. A 

 yield of 70 million board feet was calculated as a reasonable 

 national-forest production on the basis of several purely 

 arbitrary assumptions. By engaging in blister rust control, 

 the Federal Government will reduce to $1,500,000 annually 

 instead of $1,700,000 the cost of protecting the watershed, 

 timber, and recreational values of national-forest land."* 

 But what is far more important locally is that a 70-million 



" Actually, it might not be quite equitable to charge all of the original 

 control work against the first rotation, since the yields of western white 

 pine in the following rotations are also being safeguarded. It is worth 

 noting, also, that the western white pine saved in the first rotation would 

 be sufficiently valuable to cover the cost of blister rust control in that 

 period, including the expenditures in reworking cut-over and burned- 

 over areas. 



" If in 60 years the secondary species were to achieve greater value 

 the figures in these calculations would change,, but the margin would be 

 in the same direction. 



54 



