In 2006, NWRC economists and scientists were 

 asked to conduct an economic assessment of tlie 

 Texas DDC ORV Program. Tlie objective of the 

 study was to provide a cost-benefit analysis of the 

 program from 1995 to 2006. Costs were the total 

 expenditures of the DDC ORV Program from 1995 

 to 2006 (i.e., salaries, aircraft operation, and baits). 

 Benefits were the savings associated with the 

 potential reduced number of human postexposure 

 prophylaxis (PEP) treatments and animals tested 

 (AT) for the DDC variant. 



To estimate savings, the annual numbers of PEP 

 and AT were averaged across the 20 original south- 

 ern Texas counties to determine the case frequency 

 prior to DDC ORV baiting. These frequencies were 

 then extrapolated northward throughout the rest of 

 the State, based on the human population in each 

 county. It was assumed that, without an ORV bait- 

 ing program, PEP and AT cases would have spread 

 through the rest of the State at either the same rate 

 as in the original 20 counties, three-fourths of that 

 rate, or half of that rate. Benefits or savings were 

 then calculated using the number of PEP and AT 

 cases avoided and their estimated expense. 



Total DDC ORV Program benefits from 1995 to 2006 

 were calculated for three case-frequency rates. 

 Estimated benefits ranged from about $98 million to 

 $354 million. Total costs of the DDC ORV program 

 exceeded $26 million from 1995 to 2006. The 

 estimated benefits were then compared to the total 

 program costs for the 1995 to 2006 time period. 



To determine the overall economic efficiency of the 

 program, benefit-cost ratios were calculated. A 

 benefit-cost ratio greater than 1 signified economic 

 efficiency (i.e., savings exceeded program 

 expenses). Benefit-cost ratios were calculated at 

 between 3.7 and 13.4, depending upon the level of 

 PEP and AT case frequency. 



Currently, only an 80-km-wide zone is baited 

 annually to deter translocation of rabid dogs across 

 the border between the United States and Mexico. 

 The analysis revealed that this level of continued 

 baiting will be economically efficient from between 

 2016 to 2030, depending on the case frequency. 



Estimating Economic Impacts to Hawaii From 

 the Invasive BTS— In 2004, NWRC economists 

 undertook a study to estimate the economic 

 impacts likely to occur to the Hawaiian Islands 

 by the hypothetical translocation of the BTS 

 from the Territory of Guam. The approach of 

 this study was to collect and compile data from 

 Guam to glean an understanding of the snakes' 

 impact to that island. There were three general 

 categories of economic impact related to the BTS' 

 invasion: medical treatments, electrical outages, 

 and tourism losses. Data gathered on Guam 

 for medical and electrical impacts were used to 

 derive results for Hawaii. Impacts associated with 

 the tourism sector of the economy were projected 

 using an input-output model. 



Results indicate that, at $351,706 annually, 

 expenditures in Hawaii for medical treatments will 

 be the smallest portion of the costs associated 

 with the BTS. Electrical outages resulting from 

 the presence of the BTS on Hawaii will likely cost 

 residents, business, government, and tourists $335 

 million to $454 million annually. 



Impacts to Hawaii's tourism from the BTS have 

 never before been estimated. In this study, a 

 hypothetical range of decreased tourist numbers 

 (1 percent-10 percent) was used, resulting in 

 an annual decrease in revenue to the Hawaiian 

 economy of $137.5 million to $1.4 billion and 1,339 



Economists conduct economic assessments of the potential 

 impacts of the invasive BTS on the island of Haw/aii. (Photo by 

 the U.S. Geological Survey.) 



40 Developing Methods 



