grams. Missouri, as a model, has one of the most 
innovative programs: a percentage of sales tax re- 
ceipts goes directly to fund resource conservation 
programs. There, the taxpayers put in their 2 cents 
each day at the grocery store as a vote for future 
forest resources. 
None of the remedies identified above is the 
silver bullet that will continue our growth or save it 
from decline. | suggest that not one but all of us 
must be responsible for making the future success- 
ful. We must be individually and collectively commit- 
ted to doing whatever is necessary to sustain our 
timber supplies and enhance our forestry future. We 
must target our efforts at the most effective places. 
This means that we must take our best shots at the 
places where gains are likely to be the greatest. 
What If We Do Nothing? 
Failure to respond to the challenge posed by 
this study will continue the policies and programs of 
the past. It seems apparent that we must do some- 
thing different now if we are to effect the changes 
needed to increase timber supplies. The actions we 
collectively have taken in the past have been effec- 
tive but inadequate. Those actions, aimed at stimu- 
lating forest management and productivity, have 
built our growth but have also led us directly to 
where we are now, harvesting more than we are 
growing. This report signals a need for new vigor 
and new actions to increase timber potential. 
For decades, timber supply studies have been 
calling wolf and declaring future timber famines. 
Historians will point out that the outcome has never 
proven as dismal as presented in any of these earli- 
er studies. In reality, these studies evoked a re- 
sponse that has led to enhanced forest resources. 
Now this study, "The South's Fourth Forest,” points 
once again to a decline in the outlook for the south- 
ern forest resources. Are we to believe that this is 
another wolf cry? | think not. 
Consequences of the projections outlined in the 
southern timber study are not certain, but the possi- 
bility that timber supplies may fall short of growing 
needs in the region is alarming. Softwood stumpage 
prices will probably continue to rise faster than infla- 
tion, and rates of growth in timber harvests will un- 
doubtedly be lower. These expectations alone may 
restrict growth of the forest economy and may lead 
to decline. Ultimately, the economic activity due to 
wood products in our region may stagnate or even 
decline. We can lose our market share to substi- 
tutes as needs for fiber and solid wood products are 
met from other regions. Increases in prices for con- 
sumer products such as lumber and paper may 
eventually result. In any case, the great strides of the 
past seem to be threatened now. 
We should not be complacent that this scenario 
cannot happen here. The forest products industry 
has along history of following the resource from one 
region to another. Should timber supplies decline 
as a result of excessive removals, we may find that 
mills can no longer compete for an increasingly 
scarce resource. Perhaps in the next round, we here 
in the South may fall prey to the lure of wood sup- 
plies coming from other U.S. regions, or perhaps 
Brazil, New Zealand, Pacific rim nations, or even the 
vast forested regions of eastern Siberia. As long as 
we fail to fully recognize our potential and work 
vigorously to achieve it, our forestry economy is 
threatened by others. Some of these competitors 
may possess comparative advantages, but most 
have only greater vision for what the future can hold 
for them at our expense. 
In the 1920's, much of the South's original pine 
sawtimber was cut with reckless abandon and little 
concern for the future. The vigorous lumber industry 
eventually collapsed. There is not much chance that 
the scenario of a cutover South will return. Today's 
industry is different and, | believe, much more re- 
silient. Industry itself is doing a significant part to 
maintain supplies on its own lands. However, those 
supplies are clearly not enough. Productivity must 
be increased on State and private lands to sustain 
our Current levels of growth. 
A Vision and a Challenge 
My vision for the State and private forest lands 
in the South is an ambitious one. These forests must 
produce many timber and nontimber outputs for 
their owners. However, many acres can be more 
effectively managed to produce greater outputs of 
both kinds. 
| see forests where landowners fully recognize 
the financial potential along with the environmental 
potential of their property, where land management 
decisions are made with knowledge of all the trade- 
Offs. 
| see a southern forest economy where the val- 
ue of timberland and the productive assets on it are 
honestly recognized by producers and consumers, 
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