The Opportunities for the South's Fourth Forest 
Douglas W. MacCleery (1) 
Introduction 
| appreciate the opportunity to speak before this 
conference on the opportunities for the South's 
fourth forest. 
In Julius Caesar Shakespeare wrote: 
There is a tide in the affairs of men, 
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; 
Omitted, all the voyage of their life 
Is bound in shallows and in miseries. 
The tide is at the flood for forestry in the South. 
Timber growth, after rising for decades, has peaked 
and may now be beginning to decline. This makes 
for a very exciting time--full of problems, as well as 
challenges and opportunities. We have the opportu- 
nity to influence the course of events in ways that 
can substantially increase the real wealth of the 
South and of the Nation. Timber can continue to be 
the highest valued agricultural crop. The forest 
products industry can continue to lead other manu- 
facturing industries in providing income and em- 
ployment. The key is to find ways to capture the 
extensive opportunities to increase forest productiv- 
ity that exist on forest lands, as well as on agricultur- 
al lands not needed for crops or pasture. The key is 
also to find ways to build on the Federal, State, 
industry, forestry consultant, and landowner efforts 
that in the past have brought about great increases 
in timber growth and inventories. 
Opportunities Identified in the Study 
The southern timber study described very well 
the kind of future we are facing in the South today--a 
future of rising demands for timber and rising prices 
for stumpage and timber products; a future that also 
could include declining southern timber growth and 
declining employment and income in the forest in- 
dustry. 
(1) Douglas W. MacCleery is Deputy Assistant Secretary for 
Natural Resources and Environment, U.S. Department of 
Agriculture. 
There are significant opportunities to change 
that last aspect of the possible future--to have a 
fourth forest that will sustain continued increases in 
timber growth and in employment and income. 
The South has abundant, economically attrac- 
tive forest-management opportunities that will yield 
4 percent or more real return on the investment (net 
of inflation). Capturing these opportunities will in- 
crease net annual timber growth by 3.2 billion cubic 
feet. The most productive opportunities will yield 
over 10 percent real return on investment. There is 
an additional potential to grow 800 million cubic feet 
on cropland and pasture where pine planting will 
yield higher rates of return to owners than would 
crop or forage use. There is also potential to grow 
1.2 billion cubic feet of timber on highly erodible 
cropland. 
If all the economic opportunities are utilized and 
the highly erodible croplands are planted to pine, 
net annual timber growth could be increased by 5 
billion cubic feet. This would nearly double current 
net annual softwood growth in the South. 
Potential Benefits of Seizing 
the Opportunity 
Achieving the potential increase in timber 
growth would have very positive benefits for the 
South. The increase would provide enough timber 
to assure continued growth in employment and in 
wages and salaries in the forest industry. It would 
also be a powerful stimulus to the general economy 
of the South. The effect of increased forestry-sector 
employment would be multiplied as it works through 
the trade, service, and transportation sectors, and 
other parts of the economy. Currently it is estimated 
that total employment is increased about 2.5 times 
for each additional job in the forest industry sector. 
Achieving the full potential for greater timber 
growth would also have important national impacts. 
Consumers would pay less for timber products. Be- 
Cause everyone consumes forest products, every- 
one in society would benefit. Export sales of forest 
products would be _ stimulated and _ imports 
reduced--therefore exerting a favorable influence 
on the national balance of trade. The use of substi- 
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