the lack of adequate regeneration of pine stands 
after harvest on private lands other than those 
owned by forest industry. The natural succession in 
most of the pine stands after harvest is to mixed 
hardwoods and pine, or to hardwoods. Many pri- 
vate owners are accepting whatever species nature 
provides. As a result, the latest cycle of forest sur- 
veys shows a 30- to 50-percent decline in the num- 
ber of pine saplings on private lands in nonindustrial 
ownerships. This trend has been going on long 
enough to be reflected in net annual growth. 
A second factor reducing growth of softwood is 
an increase in mortality. Over the last 10 years, for 
example, annual pine mortality has increased from 
9 percent to 15 percent of the gross annual growth. 
Much of the increase in mortality can be attributed 
to outbreaks of pine bark beetles. 
The third important factor is a significant drop in 
radial growth of pine trees in the Piedmont and 
mountain regions of Georgia, South Carolina, North 
Carolina, and Virginia. In these areas, average an- 
nual radial pine growth has been some 20 to 30 
percent lower during the last 10 years than in the 
preceding 10-year period. 
At this point, we do not know the reasons for the 
decline in radial growth, but our researchers are 
working on the problem. Some possible contribut- 
ing factors are changes in stand density and stand 
age, drought or other weather factors, the loss of 
fertilizers in old fields that came back to pine, in- 
creased hardwood competition, and acid rain. 
The fourth factor affecting both hardwood and 
softwood growth has been the conversion of timber- 
land to other land uses. Since the early 1960's, the 
area of timberland in the South has declined from 
197 million acres to 182 million. About one-third of 
the loss is due to the conversion of hardwood bot- 
tomlands to cropland, especially in the Mississippi 
Delta. Most of the loss, however, was from pine 
forests. 
During the period in which net annual timber 
growth has leveled off or begun to decline, timber 
removals have increased rapidly. This picture re- 
flects increased timber harvests to meet the rapidly 
expanding demands for timber products that | de- 
scribed earlier. AS a result, softwood timber re- 
movals are now about equal to net annual growth 
for the South as a whole. However, in many areas of 
the South, softwood removal now exceeds growth. 
Both growth and timber removal trends are the 
result of many forces that are not easily or quickly 
changed. Thus, these trends are likely to persist for 
some time. How long they persist, however, de- 
pends upon what actions we take to increase the 
timber supply and how soon we do it. 
Implications 
The base projections in the study assure a con- 
tinuation of these trends in net annual growth and 
removals, resulting in a declining inventory of both 
hardwood and softwood timber over the next 30 to 
50 years. Among the economic consequences of 
continuing existing trends and the base projections 
are rising real prices for stumpage. Between 1984 
and 2000, for example, softwood sawtimber prices 
are projected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1 percent 
in the South Central region. Softwood pulpwood 
stumpage prices rise more slowly than sawtimber 
prices in the early part of the projection period and 
more rapidly in the latter part. 
Hardwood stumpage prices show much differ- 
ent trends than those for softwoods. They decline 
until around the year 2000, which reflects the avail- 
ability of large and increasing inventories of hard- 
wood timber. After 2000, as timber removals rise 
above net annual growth and inventories begin to 
decrease, prices begin to rise again. 
Rising real prices of stumpage have important 
economic, social, and environmental implications. 
In the highly competitive markets in which nearly all 
timber products are sold, rising prices act to con- 
strain demands or result in losing market share to 
other parts of the country or to substitute products, 
such as concrete, steel, aluminum, and plastic. In 
addition, the mining, industrial processing, and 
power generation associated with the production of 
wood substitutes are likely to cause more air and 
water pollution. The increases in harvest are too 
small to sustain employment in the forest industries. 
By 1990, employment is projected to drop. By 2030, 
total employment in the lumber and wood-products 
and pulp and paper industries is projected to be 25 
percent, some 108,000 people, below the employ- 
ment level of 1983. Total wages and salaries also 
decline in the latter part of the projection period. The 
effects are multiplied as they spread through the 
trade, service, transportation, and other parts of the 
southern economy providing goods and services to 
the forestry sector. Ultimately, consumers will be 
affected by rising real prices, with home buyers 
bearing most of the increased cost. 
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