The Prospective Timber Situation in the South 
and its Economic, Social, and Environmental 
Implications 
F. Dale Robertson (1) 
Introduction 
| am pleased to be back in the South. | grew up 
in Arkansas, went to school there, and learned my 
basic forestry tromping around southeastern 
Arkansas on Crossett Company land. 
Reading the review draft on the South's fourth 
forest brought back a lot of memories about the 
early part of my career here in the South. | worked 
on two Ranger Districts where the “first forest" had 
been clearcut by large lumber companies in the 
teens and twenties. In fact, as a practicing, on-the- 
ground forester, | had a set of 1936 photos that | 
used regularly in Texas, and | could go into the 
woods and very vividly see the "second forest" and 
how it developed over time. 
| spent part of my career trying to manage that 
second forest and, at the same time, grow the "third 
forest." Many of the timber sales were designed to 
increase the future productivity of the forest, not to 
make money, and were probably below-cost timber 
sales. | also had huge reforestation crews and 
timber-stand improvement crews. They really made 
a difference and deserve much of the credit for the 
third forests we enjoy today, on the national forests. 
The same experience happened on privately owned 
woods all over the region. 
Today | have the honor of presenting the find- 
ings of the study report entitled "The South's Fourth 
Forest: Alternatives for the Future." One of the hon- 
ors of being Chief is that | get to make speeches 
about great things other people do. The southern 
timber study has really been a cooperative effort, 
with many, many people making important contribu- 
tions. | want to express our thanks and appreciation 
for the excellent support and assistance from the 
State Foresters, forest-products industry, southern 
forestry schools, Forest Farmers Association, Amer- 
ican Forestry Association, and the executive group 
(1) F. Dale Robertson is Chief of the USDA Forest Service. 
that helped guide this study. | think it is a landmark 
study and, hopefully, as we look back on it and this 
conference 10 or 15 years from now, we can truly 
say it was the curve-bending event that helped 
make a difference. 
The study deals basically with three points: (1) 
It describes the kind of forest that is evolving in the 
South, if present trends continue. (2) It discusses 
the implications of this evolution to the economy 
and society. And (3) it identifies our opportunities to 
change things and create the kind of forestry future 
that we want to have in the South. | will discuss the 
first two points; Deputy Assistant Secretary Doug 
MacCleery and other speakers this afternoon will 
address the third point: how to go about growing a 
fourth forest that will permit forestry to continue as 
a growth industry in the South. 
Timber Demand 
First, let's look at the prospective changes in the 
timber demand and supply situation. In the future, 
as in the past, demands and supplies of timber will 
be largely determined by such things as growth in 
population, income and economic activity; changes 
in timberland area; and management intensity and 
associated timber yields. The population of the Unit- 
ed States has nearly doubled in the last 50 years, 
rising from 123 million to 241 million people. The 
latest estimates of the Bureau of the Census show 
the population continuing to grow, with the midlevel 
projection reaching 305 million by the year 2030. 
Since 1929, the gross national product in constant 
dollars has increased by more than five times. The 
1930's saw a major depression, and a number of 
recessions have occurred; however, in each case, 
the economy recovered. The basic forces that 
brought about longrun growth are still in effect. Pro- 
jections show that economic activity will nearly triple 
by the year 2030. Total income available for spend- 
