Adequacy of the Forest Resource in Relation 

 to Production Trend 



The desirability of sustained-yield management is 

 widely appreciated, but the obstacles involved are 

 SO formidable that its wide-scale adoption, if 

 achieved on private lands, will unquestionably be 

 gradual rather than instantaneous. Thus the ques- 

 tions arise — What of the timber supply in the ab- 

 sence of sustained-yield management? What will 

 be the opportunities of maintaining timber produc- 

 tion in the future if apparent trends continue? 



The Situation Predicted for 1966 



It should be borne in mind that future depletion 

 figures used in these calculations are not presented 

 as estimates and by no means as recommendations. 

 They are purely assumptions based on analysis of 

 depletion trend and associated factors, made in 

 order to direct attention to consequences of a con- 

 tinuation of present trend. 



Assumptions of forest drain from cutting and fire 

 for the period 1936-65 (table 20) were based upon 

 a detailed analysis of depletion records and lumber- 

 production trends, of timber volume, and owner- 

 ship and location of existing timber supplies, mak- 



ing allowance for the fact that roughly two-thirds 

 of the region's timber resource is in public and 

 Indian ownership and now being managed with the 

 objective of sustaining production. By applying 

 these depletion assumptions to the 1936 saw-timber 

 inventory and making allowance for the growth 

 that would occur, estimates of saw-timber volume 

 as of 1966 (table 31) are obtained. 



It is estimated that by 1966, if future cutting is 

 largely a continuation of past practice (95-75), 

 the saw-timber volume in ponderosa pine types, 

 which totaled 96.8 billion board feet in 1936, will 

 be reduced to 63.1 billion board feet. If, however, 

 an equal volume of timber were removed in lighter 

 cuts (50-50), it is estimated that in 1966 the pon- 

 derosa pine types would contain 68.2 billion board 

 feet. The favorable effect of lighter cutting on 

 growth has been emphasized previously. It is 

 apparent again here. Thus spreading an equal 

 volume cut over a greater area and concentrating 

 it in the most mature trees, the anticipated saving 

 in mortality and increase in growth over the 30- 

 year period is 5.1 billion board feet. This volume, 

 at the 1937 regional average price of ponderosa 

 pine in stumpage sales, would be valued at approxi- 

 mately $15,000,000. Since the trees lost by 

 mortality are of better than the average quality 



Table 31. — Saw-timber volume as of 1936 and estimated volume as of 1966, by type group, class of cutting practice, and forest-survey unit 



[In million board feet— i. e. 000,000 omitted] 





Volume 1936 







Estimated volume 



as of 1966 







Unit 



Ponde- 

 rosa pine 

 types 



Other 

 types 



Total 



Ponderosa pine types ' 



Other 

 types 



Total i 





50-50 



75-50 



95-75 



50-50 



75-50 



95-75 



Eastern Washington: 



Chelan-Colville -- --- - 



10, 970 ■ 



9,512 



552 



8,317 



9,568 



494 



19,287 

 19, 080 

 1,046 



8,677 



7,660 



474 



8,406 



7,473 

 446 



7,804 



7,167 



407 



9.043 



8,855 

 408 



17, 720 



16, 515 



882 



17. 449 

 16, 328 



854 



16, 847 





16, 022 





815 







Total 



21,034 



18, 379 



39,413 



16,811 



16, 325 



15, 378 



18, 306 



35, 117 



34, 631 



33, 684 







Eastern Oregon: 



8,269 

 17, 463 

 19, 396 

 30, 654 



3, 576 

 3,182 

 2,295 

 2,845 



11,845 

 20,645 

 ' 21, 691 

 33, 499 



6,583 

 11,012 

 14, 752 

 19, 018 



6,368 

 10, 719 

 14, 515 

 18, 515 



6,124 

 10, 151 

 14. 068 

 17, 348 



4,022 



3,120 

 2,187 

 1,890 



10, 605 

 14, 132 

 16, 939 

 20, 908 



10, 390 

 13, 839 



16, 702 

 20,405 



10,146 





13, 271 





16, 255 





19,238 







Total 



75, 782 



11,898 



87, 680 



51, 365 



50,117 



47, 691 



11, 219 



62, 584 



61, 336 



58, 910 









96, 816 



30, 277 



127, 093 



68, 176 



66,442 



63, 069 



29, 525 



97, 701 



95, 967 



92, 594 







i Estimated volume under three forms of cutting in the ponderosa pine types during 1936-65: (50-50) light selection on all areas; (75-50) heavy selec- 

 tion on private, light selection on other lands; (95-75) virtual clear cutting on private lands, heavy selection on other lands. 



76 



