in the Mississippi Delta. Most of the loss, however, was 

 from pine stands in other private ownerships. 



All of these factors affecting net annual growth are the 

 result of forces not easily or quickly changed. And even 

 when they are changed, time will pass before the effects 

 show as a measurable increase in net annual growth. The 

 effects of regeneration after harvest on the other private 

 ownerships, for example, would not show up for a decade 

 or so: it would take that long for the trees to reach 5 inches 

 in diameter at breast height, the minimum tree size used in 

 measuring net annual growth. Thus it is inevitable that 

 recent trends will continue for a while. Only time and large 

 increases in current management programs, especially the 

 regeneration programs, can turn these trends around so that 

 net annual growth is rising again. 



During the period in which net annual timber growth has 

 been declining, timber removals have increased very rapidly. 



This situation reflects increased timber harvests to meet the 

 rapidly expanding national demands for timber products 

 described above. As a result, softwood timber removals 

 now exceed net annual growth over large areas in the South. 

 Net annual hardwood growth is still above removals, but 

 the trends are converging. 



As with net annual growth, the trends in timber removals are 

 the result of forces that are not easily or quickly changed. 

 Thus, like the declines in net annual growth, these trends in 

 timber removals are also likely to persist for a time. 



The projections in the study show that the trends in net 

 annual growth and removals do persist (fig. 7). Net annual 

 growth of softwoods declines through the early 1990's, and 

 that for hardwoods until 2010. Beyond those times, net 

 annual growth rises again. Timber removals continue to 

 rise through the projection period, although at a much slower 

 rate than during the last two decades. 



Billion cubic feet 



8 |- 



6 - Net annual growth 



Removals 



1950 



1960 



1970 



1980 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



Figure 7 — Softwood net annual growth and timber removals in the South, 1952-84, with projections to 2030 



20 



