from wood. So timber is important, and changes in the 

 timber resource affect everyone in the society in some way. 



In the future as in the past, changes in the timber resource 

 will be determined in large measure by three factors: 



(1) growth in population, economic activity, and income; 



(2) changes in timberland area; and (3) changes in the 

 management intensity and associated growth of timber on 

 those lands available for timber production. 



Changes in population greatly influence the demands for 

 timber products and the conversion of timberland to uses 

 such as food and fiber production, recreation, and urban 

 development. In the last five decades, the Nation's 

 population has nearly doubled, rising from 123 million to 

 242 million people. All recent projections show the 

 population continuing to grow. In this study, the population 

 was assumed to reach 319 million by 2030, some 

 77 million above that of today (fig. 1 ). 



Since 1929, economic activity, as measured by the gross 

 national product in constant dollars (net of inflation and 

 deflation), has increased by more than five times. This 

 period has seen a major depression and a number of 

 recessions. In each case, the economy has recovered. The 

 basic forces that brought about longrun growth are still 

 active. The projections used in this study show that 

 economic activity will nearly triple by 2030 (fig. 1). Total 

 income available for spending (disposable personal income) 

 in constant dollars is also projected to nearly triple by 2030; 

 per capita income, the amount each person has to spend, 

 will increase almost 2.1 times (fig. 1). 



These projections of population, economic activity, and 

 income are a measure of the job ahead — meeting the timber 

 demands of another 77 million people and those of 319 

 million people with incomes more than double those of 

 today . 



Population 



Gross national product 



Billion 1982 dollars 



50,000 



10,000 

 5,000 



1,000 

 500 



100 



I ' I ' I ' | 



1 I ' I ' I ' 

 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 



Per capita disposable personal income 



1982 dollars 

 50,000 



30,000 



10,000 

 7,000 

 5,000 



3,000 



1,000 



Figure 1 — Population, economic activity, and income in the United States, 1929-86, with projections to 2030 



