THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



35 



manufacture wood products, correlations were 

 developed to determine relationships between 

 value of shipments of each industry and such 

 independent variables as gross national product, 

 disposable personal income, and industrial pro- 

 duction. These analyses were made for each of 

 the 23 product classes listed in table 23. 



As an example of these correlations, figure 15 

 shows that per capita expenditures for household 

 furniture were closely associated with per capita 

 disposable income from 1929 to 1962. Between 



Table 23. — Lumber consumed in manufactured 

 products by product group, 19^8 and 1960 



EXPENDITURES FOR HOUSEHOLD 



FURNITURE AND DISPOSABLE 



PERSONAL INCOME 



[Million board feet] 



Product group 



1948 



1960 



Furniture, household _ 



1,965 



2,088 







Furniture, commercial and institu- 

 tional ._ - 



105 



173 







Consumer goods, income-sensitive: 

 Sports equipment . 



55 



53 

 93 

 54 



28 



87 



Pianos and other musical instru- 

 ments ^ 



51 



Boat building and repair 



50 



Toys and games _ . 



56 



Trunks and luggage 



17 







Total . 



283 



261 







Consumer goods, income-insensitive: 

 Hand and garden tools. 



68 

 59 

 66 



155 

 37 

 57 

 35 



88 



Brooms and brushes 



89 



Wood pencils _ . 



72 



Caskets and other morticians' goods. 

 Venetian blinds and window shades. 

 Shoe findings and lasts 



93 

 32 

 39 



Wood matches 



1 







Total 



477 



414 







Commercial equipment: 



Refrigerators and air conditioners. _ 

 Fixtures and partitions 



38 



172 



45 



94 

 99 



Signs and displays _ 



25 







Total... 



255 



218 







Industrial machinery and equipment: 

 Patterns and jigs. 



105 

 147 

 27 

 68 

 66 

 22 



71 



Truck bodies and trailers 



54 



General machinery 



49 



Agricultural implements 



Electrical equipment 



Textile machine supplies 



25 

 70 

 26 







Total 



435 



295 







Miscellaneous products 



392 



403 







All products 



3,912 



3,852 







$50 

 $40 

 $30 

 $20 

 $10 

 



(1961 dollars) 



19: 









• 

 • 



^1961 



• 



• 



1947^ 

 1929s, . 



• 



I3-' 









Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

 Wood Used in Manufacture, 1948 and 1960. 



$1000 $2000 $3000 $4000 



Per Capita Disposable Personal Income 



Figure 15 



1929 and 1961, a change of 1 percent in per capita 

 disposable income was accompanied, on the aver- 

 age, by a change of 1.35 percent in per capita sales 

 of furniture. Some decline in this ratio has been 

 evident and a further decline of 20 percent over 

 the projection period was assumed. 



From 1948 to 1962 the value of shipments of 

 household furniture (in 1961 dollars) rose 82 

 percent, or an average of 4.4 percent per year- 

 Estimates of prospective expenditures, based on 

 projections of per capita consumption shown in 

 figure 15 and the population assumptions adopted 

 in this study, indicate a further rise from an index 

 of 100 in 1962 to 290 by 2000 (table 24). This 

 would represent an average increase in sales of 2.8 

 percent annually. 



Manufactured Products Show 

 Differing Trends in Sales 



Similar analyses for other products or product 

 groups show differing relationships with the se- 

 lected economic variables. For most products the 

 projections indicate that the ratio of expenditures 

 to income has been declining. For some items, 

 such as agricultural implements, declining per 

 capita sales have not been positively correlated 

 with any general economic indicator. Further 

 reductions in per capita expenditures for such 

 products were assumed. 



The indexes of prospective sales from such 

 analyses are summarized in table 24 for the various 

 product groups. These show a range in indexes 



