THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



23 



A statistical analysis of the relationship be- 

 tween construction expenditures and gross national 

 product in the 1947-62 period, together with a 

 graphic analysis of long-run trends in nonresiden- 

 tial construction expenditures as a percent of 

 GNP, indicated that construction expenditures 

 might rise to about $102 billion in 2000 — 3 times 

 the level of 1962 (table 11). This projection is 

 substantially below estimates of about $140 

 billion pubhshed by the Department of Commerce 

 in 1961 '^ and $155 billion published by Resources 

 for the Future in 1962.'» 



Nonresidential construction expenditures have 

 ranged from a high of 9 percent of GNP during 

 the boom years of the 1920's to about 6 percent 

 during the 1950's with some downward trend 

 during these recent decades. Projected expendi- 

 tures involve a further drop from 6.2 percent of 

 GNP in 1962 to about 5.3 percent by 2000. 



During the period 1950-62, the percentage dis- 

 tribution of construction expenditures by kind of 

 construction was as follows: 



" U.S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense 

 Services Administration, Construction Review, vol. 7, No. 

 9, September 1961. 



'8 Resources for the Future, Inc., Resources in America's 

 Future, Patterns of Requirements and Availabilities, 1960- 

 2000. The Johns Hopkins Press, 1962. 1017 pp. 



Percent 



Industrial buildings 9.4 



Commercial buildings 12.1 



Hotels, motels, etc 2.1 



Other private buildings 9.4 



Public buildings 17.5 



Utilities, sewer and water 22.6 



Highways 15.3 



Military facilities 4.7 



Public service (conservation and development) 5.6 



All other 1.3 



Total 100.0 



This distribution of expenditures was essentially 

 the same as the longer term average for the years 

 1920-62. Future allocations of total nonresi- 

 dential construction expenditures among the 

 various categories were therefore based upon these 

 averages, tempered to some degree by judgment. 

 Thus somewhat higher relative proportions of the 

 projected total expenditures were allocated to 

 highways, public services, and conservation and 

 development projects and somewhat lower propor- 

 tions to military facilities (table 11). 



F/Vc Billion Feet of 

 Lumber Used in 1962 



Consumption of lumber in new nonresidential 

 construction decreased slowly between 1952 and 



Table 11. — Expenditures for new nonresidential construction,^ by construction classes, 1920-2000 



[Millions of 1961 dollars] 





All 

 classes 



Buildings 



Public 



utilities 



and sewer 



and water 



systems 



High- 

 ways 



Mili- 

 tary 



Public 

 service, 

 conserva- 

 tion and 

 develop- 

 ment 





Period or 

 year 



Indus- 

 trial 



Com- 

 mercial 



Hotels, 



motels, 



etc. 



Other 



Public 



All 

 other 



1920-29 2__. 

 1930-39 2.., 

 1940-49 2__ 

 1950-59 2.. _ 



1960 



1961 



1962 



14,871 

 12,356 

 15,705 

 27,012 

 32,091 

 33,537 

 33,897 



2,056 

 916 

 1,584 

 2,642 

 2,870 

 2,759 

 2,767 



2,783 

 1,212 

 1,116 

 3,086 

 4,298 

 4,663 

 4,817 



767 

 239 

 180 

 432 

 936 

 1,172 

 1,232 



1,708 

 953 

 856 

 2,465 

 3,220 

 3,332 

 3,472 



1,744 

 2,185 

 3,436 

 4,970 

 4,902 

 5,132 

 5,008 



3,309 

 2,268 

 3,017 

 6,349 

 6,624 

 6,748 

 6,680 



1,519 



2,340 

 1,436 

 3,932 

 5,405 

 5,818 

 6,059 



78 

 151 

 2,675 

 1,336 

 1,408 

 1,368 

 1,237 



543 

 1,723 

 1,164 

 1,499 

 1,895 

 1,935 

 1,976 



364 

 369 

 241 

 301 

 533 

 610 

 649 



PROJECTIONS 



1970 

 1980 

 1990 

 2000 



42,600 



3,400 



5,500 



1,300 



4,300 



6,400 



57,400 



4,600 



7,800 



1,400 



5,200 



8,600 



75,900 



6,500 



10,200 



1,900 



6,800 



11,400 



101,800 



8,700 



14,200 



2,500 



8,700 



15,300 



8,500 



8,100 



1,700 



11,500 



11,200 



2,000 



15,200 



14,800 



2,300 



20,400 



20,400 



2,000 



2,600 

 4,000 

 5,700 

 8,100 



800 

 1,100 

 1,100 

 1,500 



' Excludes farms and railroads. 



2 Data shown are annual averages for the decade. 



^ Sources: 1920-56, U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. 



^ Department of Commerce, statistical supplement to vol. 



Tf 3 of Construction Review, Construction Volume and Costs, 



' 1915-1956, 1958. 1957-62, derived from U.S. Depart- 



ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Value of New 

 Construction Put in Place — ." Construction Reports, 

 July 1961. (No. C30-25, supplement) and U.S. Depart- 

 ment of Commerce, Business and Defense Services 

 Administration, Construction Review. Projections. U.S. 

 Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 



