THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



17 



New Construction the Principal 

 Source of Dwelling Unit$ Provided 



The total number of dwelling units provided 

 includes (1) units supplied by new construction, 

 (2) units derived by conversions, i.e., the creation 

 of dwelling units from other space such as large 

 single-family houses, rooming houses, and stores, 

 and (3) mobile homes. 



New construction, which accounted for 87 per- 

 cent of the total units provided in the 1950's, 

 has been by far the most important source of 

 dwelling units provided (table 8). 



Conversions were of considerable importance 

 in the depression years of the 1930's and in the 

 1940's when materials shortages and production 

 controls limited new construction. During these 

 decades, conversions made up 25 percent of the 

 units provided. As materials became more plenti- 

 ful, however, conversions dropped to about 11 

 percent of the units provided in the 1950's. 



Projections assume that new construction will 

 compose around 90 percent of the total units 

 provided in the years ahead — rising from an 

 average of about 1.5 million units annually in the 

 1950's to approximately 1.6 million units by 1970 

 and to 2.7 million units by 2000. Mobile homes 

 are projected to rise from the 1962 level of 112,000 

 to 200,000 in 2000. Conversions are estimated 

 to drop to about 100,000 units a year, partly 

 because there are likely to be fewer large, old, 

 single-family houses suitable for division into two 

 or more units. Rising incomes and higher stand- 

 ards of living which have been assumed also 

 imply a decrease in demand for the type of housing 

 resulting from conversions. 



In total, the projections developed in this study 

 indicate that approximately 79 million new 

 dwelling units may be constructed in the 40-year 

 projection period. This approximates the esti- 

 mate of 83 million units published in a recent 

 analysis in House and Home '" based largely on 



'" ". . . Look Ahead . . ." House and Home, p. 218, 

 March 1962. 



Table 8. — Dwelling units provided, by type of unit, 1920-2000 



[Thousand units] 



Period or year 



All types 



New construction 



Mobile 

 homes 



Net addi- 

 tions by 





All starts 



One-family 



Two-family 



Multifamily 



conver- 

 sions 



1920-29 1 



1930-39 1 



909.3 



592.5 



1,089.2 



1,686.1 



803.4 

 365.1 

 864.6 

 1,459.9 

 1,296.1 

 1,365.4 

 1,492.6 



527.1 

 304.5 

 718.5 

 1,215.5 

 1,008.8 

 989.3 

 996.3 



109.0 

 15.3 

 41.5 

 45.0 

 50.5 

 50.0 

 56.1 



167.3 

 45.3 

 104.6 

 199.4 

 236.8 

 326.1 

 440.2 





105.9 

 227.4 



1940-49 1 



1950-59 1 



1960 



28.5 

 40.4 

 98.0 

 86.0 

 112.0 



196.1 



185.8 



1961 







1962 













PROJECTIONS 



1970 



1980 



1990 



2000 



1,900.0 

 2,200.0 

 2,550.0 

 3,000.0 



1,630.0 

 1,920.0 

 2,260.0 

 2,700.0 



1,040.0 

 1,180.0 

 1,330.0 

 1,530.0 



60.0 

 70.0 

 80.0 

 90.0 



530.0 



670.0 



850.0 



1,080.0 



170.0 

 180.0 

 190.0 

 200.0 



100.0 

 100.0 

 100.0 

 100.0 



1 Data shown are annual averages for the decade. 



Sources: NEW CONSTRUCTION: 1920-39, U.S. De- 

 partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical 

 Statistics of the United States, 1960. Reported data revised 

 to include farm dwelling starts based on year-built data 

 reported for farm housing in the 1940 Census of Housing. 

 1940-49, housing starts for decade estimated at 82 per- 

 cent of the total units provided less estimated number of 

 mobile homes. Two- and multifamily starts were derived 

 by applying to total starts the ratios of nonfarm total 

 starts to nonfarm two- and multifamily starts as reported 

 in Historical Statistics of the United States 1960. 1950-59, 

 Bureau of the Census, "Components of Inventory Change." 

 United States Census of Housing, 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 

 1962. 1960 and 1962, U.S. Department of Commerce, 

 Business and Defense Services Administration, Construction 

 Review, March 1963. 



MOBILE HOMES: 1940-49, estimates based on as- 

 sumption that about 90 percent of the "trailer" dwelling 

 units reported in the 1950 Census of Housing were built 

 during the 1940-49 decade. 1950-59, Bureau of the Cen- 

 sus, "Components of Inventory Change." United States 

 Census of Housing, 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 1960-62, 

 Forest Service estimates derived from data supplied by 

 the Mobile Home Manufacturers Association. 



NET CONVERSIONS: 1920-49, estimates based on 

 difference between "all types" of units provided and those 

 provided under "new construction" and "mobile homes." 

 1950-59, Bureau of the Census, "Components of Inven- 

 tory Change." United States Census of Housing, 1960, 

 vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 



PROJECTIONS: U.S. 

 Forest Service. 



Department of Agriculture, 



