16 



TIMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 7. — Average annual number of dwelling units provided, by decades, 1920-2000 



[Thousand units] 



Decade 



Total units 

 provided 



Increase in inventory of dwelling units 



Replacements 





Total 



Nonfarm 



Farm 





1920-29 



909.3 

 592.5 



1,089.2 

 1,686.1 



794.3 



483.0 



881.2 



1,233.1 



794.6 

 399.1 



1,008.8 

 1,513.0 



-0.3 



+ 83.9 



-127.6 



-279.9 



115 



1930-39 



1940-49 



1950-59 - .- .-- 



109.5 

 208.0 

 453 







PROJECTIONS 



1960-69 



1,800.0 

 2,000.0 

 2,400.0 

 2,800.0 



1,090.0 

 1,180.0 

 1,410.0 

 1,640.0 







710 



1970-79 







820 



1980-89 







990 



1990-99 







1 160 











SOURCES: TOTAL UNITS PROVIDED: 1920-49, 

 derived by adding estimated replacements to estimates of 

 total increase in dwelling units. 1950-59, U.S. Depart- 

 ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Components 

 of Inventory Change." United States Census of Housing, 

 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 



REPLACEMENTS: 1920-49, demolition estimates as 

 reported by Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of 

 the United States, 1960. Disaster loss estimated at 1 per- 



cent of inventory per decade. Demolitions plus disaster 

 loss estimated at slightly over one-half of total loss during 

 the 1920's and at about two-thirds of total loss during the 

 1930's and 1940's. 1950-59, Bureau of the Census, "Com- 

 ponents of Inventory Change." United States Census of 

 Housing, 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 



PROJECTIONS: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

 Forest Service. 



Replacements of dwelling units result from a 

 number of factors, including disasters, demolition 

 of obsolescent dwellings through urban renewal 

 and other progi'ams, migration and related aban- 

 donment of rural dwelling units, and conversion 

 of dwelling units to other uses. 



During the 1950's the rate of housing replace- 

 ments averaged 453 thousand units annually 

 (table 7). This was materially above the average 

 of earlier years, including the boom period of the 

 1920's (fig. 8). 



Looking to the future, it seems reasonable to 

 expect that replacements will increase further in 

 the expanding economy that is in prospect, and 

 as the increasing impacts of urban renewal and 

 other construction programs are felt. Thus, in 

 the 1960's replacements are estimated at 710 

 thousand units a year. By the 1990's, estimated 

 replacements average nearly 1.2 million units 

 annually. The housing replacement rates as- 

 sumed in developing these projections average 

 about 1.2 percent of the housing inventory at 

 the beginning of each decade, or somewhat more 

 than the figure for the 1950's. 



When the estimates of dwelling units required 

 to house the Nation's expanding population are 

 added to the estimated replacements it appears 

 that about 1.8 million units will be required 

 annually in the 1960's— slightly more than the 

 average of 1.7 million units provided in the 



1950's. By the 1990's, the estimated total num- 

 ber of units to be provided is projected at 2.8 

 million units per year — about 1.6 times the level 

 of the 1950's (fig. 8). 



DWELLING UNITS PROVIDED 



(Average Number of Units Provided Annually) 



3.0 r 



^ Replacements 



2.0 - 



1- 



Ki . I Projections 



Net Increase ' 



1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 

 ■2 9 -39 -49 -59 -69 -79 -89 -99 



Fisure 8 



J 



