14 



TDMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



For nonresidential construction, total expendi- 

 tures were projected to increase from $45.5 billion 

 in 1961 to $129.6 billion in 2000, including $101.8 

 billion for new construction and $27.8 billion for 

 repairs and maintenance. Total expenditures for 

 residential construction were projected from $31.0 

 billion in 1961 to $67.4 billion in 2000. 



Total construction expenditures during the past 

 40 years have varied between 6 and 22 percent of 

 GNP, with a slight downward trend. In the last 

 decade expenditures have averaged about 15 

 percent of GNP, with nonresidential construction 

 averaging about 8 percent of GNP, and residential 

 construction including repairs, alterations, and 

 additions 7 percent. 



The projections adopted in this study indicate 

 a further decline in construction expenditures as a 

 percent of gi'oss national product. Most of this 

 drop reflects the expectation that residential con- 

 struction will tend to increase in line with popula- 

 tion and thus rise much more slowly than GNP. 

 An expected continuation of the upward trend in 

 the "services" component of GNP is also expected 

 to lower the proportion of GNP devoted to non- 

 residential construction. 



Projected Use of Consfructio 

 Materials Doubles by 2000 



Between 1920 and 1961 consumption of con- 

 struction materials increased about 75 percent 

 (table 4). Most of this growth was due to a rise 

 in the use of construction minerals, although con- 

 sumption of iron and ferro-alloy metals also rose 

 until the early 1950's. Construction timber prod- 

 ucts did not show a well-defined trend. 



While total consumption has increased substan- 

 tially since the early 1920's, the use of construction 

 materials per thousand dollars of construction 

 expenditures has dechned about 40 percent (table 

 4). This trend has been largely caused by such 

 factors as technological advances in construction, 

 improved materials, and an increase in the propor- 

 tion of expenditures for such things as architec- 

 tural and engineering services. 



On the basis of a statistical and gi'aphical 

 analysis of past trends in use, it is estimated that 

 consumption of all construction materials per 

 thousand dollars of construction expenditures may 

 decline an additional 23 percent by 2000 and use 

 per thousand dollars of gross national product by 

 about 45 percent (table 4). 



Total use of construction materials, however, is 

 projected to a level about double consumption in 

 1961. Per capita use of construction materials 

 remains about the same as in the 1950's. 



DEMAND FOR LUMBER AND PANEL 

 PRODUCTS IN CONSTRUCTION 



About three-quarters of the lumber and ply v/ood 

 consumed annually in the United States, plus 

 substantial volumes of other wood products such 

 as building board, are used in various kinds of 

 construction. 



RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 



Residential construction is the largest market 

 for lumber, plywood, and other panel products. 

 Projections of demand have been derived in the 



Table 5. — Inventory of dwelling units, 1920-2000 

 [Thousand units] 



Year 



1920__. 

 1930__. 

 1940_.. 

 1950_.. 

 1960... 



Total 



inventory 



of dwelling 



units 



24,552 

 32,495 

 37,325 

 46,137 

 58,468 



Number of households 



Total Nonfarm Farm 



24,352 

 29,905 

 34,855 

 42,969 

 52,955 



17,601 

 23,300 

 27,748 

 37,228 

 49,407 



6,751 

 6.605 

 7,107 

 5,741 

 3,548 



Vacant 



dwelling 



units 



200 

 2,590 

 2,470 

 3,168 

 5,513 



PROJECTIONS 



1970 - 



69,400 



81,700 



95,800 



112,200 



62,500 



73,500 



86,200 



101,000 







6,900 



1980 . 







8,200 



1990__. 







9,600 



2000 . 







11.200 











Sources: INVENTORY OF DWELLING UNITS: 

 1920 and 1930, derived by addition of estimated vacancies 

 to reported number of households. 1940, U.S. Department 

 of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing 19 UO, Part I, 

 U.S. Summary. 1950 and 1960, Bureau of the Census, 

 "Components of Inventory Change." United States 

 Census of Housing, 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 



NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS: 1920-40, Bureau of 

 the Census, Census oj Housing, 1950, vol. I, Part 1, 1953. 

 1950 and 1960, Bureau of the Census, "Components of 

 Inventory Change." United States Census of Housing, 

 1960, vol. IV, Part 1-A, 1962, and from unpublished data 

 furnished by the Bureau of the Census. 



VACANT DWELLING UNITS: 1920 and 1930, 

 Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United 

 States, 1960. Vacancy data for nonfarm were based on 

 difference between reported number of nonfarm dwelling 

 units standing and number of occupied nonfarm dwelling 

 units. Farm vacancy for 1920 estimated at 1 percent of 

 occupied farm dwelling units: for 1930, estimated at 3 

 percent of occupied farm dwelling units. 1940, Bureau of 

 the Census, Housing 19 UO, Part I, U.S. Summary. 1950 

 and 1960, Bureau of the Census, "Components of Inven- 

 tory Change." United States Census of Housing, 1960, vol. 

 IV, Part 1-A, 1962. 



PROJECTIONS: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

 Forest Service. 



