THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



13 



Projected Construction Expenditures Nearly 

 Triple by 2000 



Trends in use of construction materials also are 

 of significance in projecting demands for timber 

 products since a large part of the consumption of 

 lumber and plywood, for example, is used in 

 various types of construction. Construction 

 materials are defined to include (a) construction 

 minerals such as sand and gravel, (b) ores of iron 

 and ferro-alloy metals, and (c) construction 

 timber, i.e., saw logs, veneer logs, and minor 

 industrial wood products. 



Over the past four decades expenditures for 

 construction (excluding farms and railroads) 

 have quadrupled, although with considerable 

 cyclical fluctuation (table 4 and fig. 6). 



CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES 



TOTAL 



200 



150 



100 



--. 50 



i rv 



/ 



<i 



NONRESIDENTIAL 



200 



150 



100 



Upkeep & Improvements 



A 



V/ New Nonresidential 



940 1960 



Figure 6 



1980 



2000 



CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES 

 & GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 



(billions of 1961 dollars) 



400 



300 



200 



^ 100 



.9 



u 250 



200 



150 



100 



50 



TOTAL 



Assumed 

 Relationship 



\/ 



Pa+b) 



X.-' 



<fe^' y=a+b log x 



.^ 



NONRESIDENTIAL 



Assumed ^ 



Relationship 



ir=a+b> 







Z^*' y-a+b log x 



500 1000 150U 2000 



G. N. P. 



Figure 7 



Construction expenditures during the period 

 1947-61 were closely related to GNP (fig. 7). A 

 projection, derived from this past relationship, as 

 modified by long-term trends in construction 

 expenditures as a percent of GNP and judgment 

 as to the changing outlook, showed a rise from 

 $76.5 billion (at 1961 prices) in 1961 to $197 

 billion in 2000 (table 4). The projected value of 

 $142.6 billion of new construction in 2000 (ex- 

 cluding upkeep and improvements) is substan- 

 tially below recent projections of $219 bilUon by 

 the U.S. Department of Commerce * and $281 

 billion by Resources for the Future, Inc.^ 



* U.S. Department of Commerce, Business and Defense 

 Services Administration, Construction Review, vol. 7, No. 

 9, September 1961. 



^ Resources for the Future, Inc., Resources in America's 

 Future, Patterns of Requirements and Availabilities, 1960- 

 2000, p. 615. The Johns Hopkins Press, 1962. 



