THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



11 



Use of Industrial Raw Materials Per 



Dollar of GNP Down 45 Percent Since 1920 



Over the past several decades consumption of 

 industrial raw materials has increased substantially 

 but more slowly than GNP and its major com- 

 ponents. Between 1920 and 1961, for example, 

 consumption of industrial raw materials increased 

 about 1.8 times — considerably less than the rise 

 in gross national product (table 3 and fig. 5). 



As a result of these different rates of growth, 

 use of industrial raw materials per thousand dollars 

 of GNP declined from an average of about $46 in 

 the early 1920's to about $26 in 1961 (1954 

 dollars), a reduction of nearly 45 percent. Per 

 capita use of industrial raw materials reached a 

 maximum in the early 1950's and has since de- 

 clined. 



The drop in use of industrial raw materials per 

 dollar of gross national product is attributed to 

 such factors as refinements in manufacturing that 

 add more value to given amounts of raw materials, 

 relative increases in use of the cheaper raw mate- 

 rials, more complete utilization of raw materials, 

 recycling of scrap and used materials, and relative 

 increases in the services component of GNP. 



In recent years the drop in materials use per 

 dollar of gross national product has been somewhat 

 overstated because of the exclusion of small 

 quantitites of petroleum, gas, and coal used as 

 industrial raw materials in the manufacture of 

 plastics, rubber, nylon, and other related synthetic 

 products. However, adjustment for such materials 

 does not change the trends significantly. 



Further Decline in Use of Industrial Raw 

 Materials Per Dollar of GNP Expected, But 

 Projected Use More Than Doubles by 2000 



Some further decrease in the ratio of raw mate- 

 rial consumption to gross national product appears 

 likely, although at a slower rate than in the past. 

 On the basis of a statistical and graphical analysis 

 of past trends it was estimated that ratios of raw 

 materials consumed per thousand dollars of gross 

 national product might decline an additional 45 

 percent by 2000 (table 3 and fig. 5). 



This assumed future trend in the ratio of 

 materials use to gross national product, together 

 with the projections of gross national product 

 adopted in this study, indicates that total use of 

 industrial raw materials will more than double by 

 2000. 



CONSUMPTION OF INDUSTRIAL 

 RAW MATERIALS 



30 



TOTAL CONSUMPTION 



o 



-a 





20 



All Industrial Raw Material 



s -^^4^' 



10 



IV, 



^€ Agr 



Agricultural Nonfoods 



Minerals Except Gold 



-Timber Products 



CONSUMPTION PER THOUSAND DOLURS OF 

 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 



40 



o 

 ^- 



,-*-All Industrial Raw Materials 



20 



Agricultural Nonfoods V 



o 



-a 



u-i 



Minerals 

 Except Gold 



PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION 



All Industrial Raw Materials 



Agricultural Nonfoods 



^ '" Minerals Except Gold 

 Timber Products 











1920 



)940 



1960 

 Figure 5 



1980 



2000 



