10 



TIMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



INDUSTRY EXPENDITURES FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 



1962 



Indus! rial Chemicals v^i^i^iyiiy^^ 



Primary Metals and Fabricated 

 Metal Products 



Stone, Clay, and Glass Products 



Lumber, Wood Products, 

 Furniture, and Paper and 

 Allied Products 



i_ 







*Federal and State including educational. 

 Source: Natural Science Foundation 



X 



200 



400 



millions of dollars 



600 



800 



Figure 4 



Such technical progress will be difficult to achieve, 

 however, in view of the limited research and 

 development activities in the fragmented lumber 

 and related wood products industries in com- 

 parison with those of major competitors (fig. 4) . 



Should relative lumber prices increase sig- 

 nificantly beyond the levels assumed, it is to be 

 expected that demand for lumber will be lower 

 than projected — with corresponding increases in 

 demands for other products, including wood-based 

 materials such as plywood and pulpwood products 

 as well as nonwood materials. 



In the case of softwood plywood, relative prices 

 have dropped substantially since the late 1940's 

 (fig. 3) along with the rapid expansion of the 

 plywood industry, steady improvements in the 

 technology of production, and the changing mix 

 of plywood grades. It has been assumed in this 

 analysis that future relative prices will approxi- 

 mate the average of the period 1955-62. 



Long-term trends in relative prices of paper 

 products have been fairly stable (fig. 3). Prices 

 of paperboard showed a fairly strorrg upward 

 trend for a number of years but have leveled off 

 since about 1951. In view of the long history of 

 successful improvements in technology in the pulp, 

 paper and board industries, it seems reasonable to 

 expect that recent relative price levels for the 



products of these industries will be maintained 

 during the projection period. 



TRENDS IN DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL RAW 

 MATERIALS 



In addition to population and general economic 

 activity, trends in use of all industrial raw mate- 

 rials are likely to be of significance in projecting 

 demands for important classes of raw materials 

 such as timber products. Also, comparisons of 

 prospective trends in demand for timber products 

 with prospective trends in use of all raw materials 

 provide some basis for judging the reasonableness 

 of the projections of timber demand. 



Industrial raw materials are defined to include: 

 (a) agricultural nonfoods and wildlife products, 

 such as cotton and other fibers, vegetable oils, 

 hides, rubber, and furs; (b) minerals such as iron 

 and other metallic ore, clay, sand, limestone, and 

 sulfur, but not gold; and (c) all timber products 

 except fuelwood. These materials are referred to 

 as "physical structure materials" in Bureau of the 

 Census publications.^ 



" U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 

 Raw Materials in the United States Economy: 1900-61, 

 1963, (Working Paper No. 6). 



