8 



TIMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



2 and fig. 1).^ This would represent an average 

 annual rate of increase of about 3.4 percent com- 

 pared with 3.9 percent between 1940 and 1960, 

 and about 3.2 percent in the period 1920-60. 



This projection of gross national product was 

 based on trends in employed labor force, average 

 hours worked, and man-hour productivity as 

 shown in table 2. It assumes an average unem- 

 ployment rate of about 4 percent and an economy 

 characterized by peace, but with a continued 

 high level of military preparedness. An average 

 increase in output per man-hour of about 2.4 

 percent annually is assumed in both the private 

 and public sectors of the economy. This rate is 

 slightly above that achieved by the total private 

 economy in the 1909-60 period, and somewhat 

 less than the average rate of 2.7 percent between 

 1950 and 1960. 



'^ This estimate of GNP for the year 2000 is 13 percent 

 below the figure of $2,200 adopted by Resources for the 

 Future, Inc. (see footnote 4). 



Projected Disposable Personal 

 Income Also Rises 3.5 Times 



A component of gi^oss national product that is 

 considered particularly relevant in projecting 

 demand for certain timber products such as 

 furniture and various grades of paper and board 

 is disposable personal income, i.e., the monetary 

 income of private persons after payment of 

 personal taxes. 



During the past several decades, disposable 

 personal income has fluctuated narrowly around 

 70 percent of gross national product. Assuming 

 this relationship continues, disposable personal 

 income is projected from $879 billion in 1962 to 

 $1,340 billion in 2000 (table 2 and fig. 1). In 

 terms of per capita disposable personal income, 

 the projection rises from $2,030 in 1962 to $4,120 

 in 2000. 



Table 2. — Economic growth in the United States, 1920-2000 





Employed 

 labor 

 force 



Average 

 work 

 week 



Product 



per 

 man-hour 



Gross national product 



Disposable personal 

 income 



Year 



Total 



Annual 



rate of 



increase ' 



Per 

 capita 



Total 



Per 



capita 



1920 



Millions 



Hours 



1961 

 dollars 



Billions of 

 1961 dollars 

 143.0 

 190.3 

 236.8 

 366.5 

 511.1 

 546.0 



Percent 

 ---- 



2.2 

 4.5 

 3.4 



1961 

 dollars 

 1,343 

 1.545 

 1,793 

 2,406 

 2,828 

 2,924 



Billions of 

 1961 dollars 



1961 . 

 dollars 



1930 



1940 



45.7 

 48.1 

 61.4 

 69.2 



70.7 



49.1 

 45.1 

 41.0 

 39.0 



1.63 

 2.10 

 2.80 

 3.66 



140.6 

 170.2 

 256.7 

 355.7 

 379.0 



1,141 

 1,288 



1950 



1960 



1962 _ 



1.685 

 1,968 

 2,030 











PROJECTIONS 



1970 



82.5 



37.0 



4.48 



710.0 



3.4 



3,410 



500.0 



2,400 



1980 



94.9 



34.8 



5.74 



990.0 



3.4 



4,110 



690.0 



2,860 



1990 



109.7 



32.6 



7.40 



1.380.0 



3.4 



4.930 



960.0 



3.430 



2000 



126.4 



30.5 



9.56 



1,920.0 



3.4 



5,910 



1.340.0 



4,120 



■ Rates are averages for decade ending in specified year. 



Sources: EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE: 1930-62, 

 Office of the President, Economic Report of the President, 

 January 1964. 



AVERAGE WORK WEEK: 1930-60, computed from 

 employed labor force and man-hour data. 



PRODUCT PER MAN-HOUR: 1930-50, derived from 

 data published by U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of 

 Labor Statistics, Trends in Output per Man-hour in the 

 Private Economy, 1909-1958, 1959. 1960, Office of the 

 President, Economic Report of the President, January 1962. 



GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: 1920, derived from 

 data published by the Joint Committee on the Economic 

 Report, Potential Economic Growth of the United States 



During the Next Decade, 1954. 1930-62, Office of the 

 President, Economic Report of the President, January 1962 

 and 1964. 



DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME: 1930-62, Office 

 of the President, Economic Report of the President, January 

 1962 and 1964. 



PROJECTIONS: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

 Forest Service, derived in part from data published by the 

 Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission Staff, 

 National Planning Association, and U.S. Department of 

 Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections to the Years 

 1976 and 2000: Economic Growth, Population, Labor Force 

 and Leisure, and Transportation, 1962 (ORRRC Study 

 Report No. 23). 



