THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER DEMANDS 



This population projection approximates the 

 median of a series of projections pubhshed by 

 the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1964.^ Largely 

 as a result of recent declines in fertility rates 

 (fig. 2), the median of the new series of Census 

 projections is roughly 10 percent lower than that 

 of the preceding series prepared for the Senate 

 Select Committee on Water Resources in I960.- 



A population of 325 million in 2000 is about 7 

 percent less than a "judgment" estimate of 351 

 million used by the Outdoor Recreation Resources 

 Review Commission in 1962^ and is slightly 



lower than a "medium" projection of 331 million 

 persons adopted in a report issued in 1962 by 

 Resources for the Future, Inc.* It is, however, 

 materially above the figure of 275 million adopted 

 by the Forest Service in 1952 in the Timber 

 Resource Review.^ 



Numbers of households in the United States 

 have been projected to increase from 54.7 million 

 in 1962 to approximately 101 million in 2000 

 (table 1). This would involve a slight decline 

 in average numbers of persons per household 

 from 3.41 in 1962 to 3.22 in 2000. 



■ U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 

 "Projections of the Population of the United States by- 

 Age and Sex: 1964 to 1985 with Extensions to 2010." 

 Population Estimates, July 1964, (Current Population 

 Reports, Series P-25, No. 286). 



2 Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources, 

 "Population Pro.jections and Economic Assumptions." 

 Water Resources Activities in the United States, 1960, (86th 

 Cong. 2d sess., Committee Print No. 5). 



3 Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission 

 Staff, National Planning Association, and U.S. Department 

 of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections to the 

 Years 1976 and 2000: Economic Growth, Population, Labor 

 Force, and Leisure, and Transportation, 1962, (ORRRC 

 Study Report No. 23). 



Gross National Product May 

 Rise 3.5 Times by 2000 



The projection of gross national product adopted 

 in this study increases from $546 billion in 1962 

 to $1,920 bilhon in 2000 (at 1961 prices) (table 



* Resources for the Future, Inc., Resources in America's 

 Future, Patterns of Requirements and Availabilities, 1960- 

 2000. The Johns Hopkins Press, 1962. 1017 pp. 



^ U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

 Timber Resources for America's Future, 1958. 713 pp. 

 (Forest Resource Report No. 14). 



FERTILITY RATES 



4000 



3500 



E 

 o 



S 



o 

 o 



p. 3000 



2500 



2000 



Ww 



r \-' . 





/ K -■- 



ies A 

 ies B 



/ \ Se,ms_C 325 MM* 



fW " ■ ,„Series D 



' 





1925 



1940 



1955 



1970 



1985 



2000 



'During childbearing period of life. 



Source: U. S, Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census 



Population Projection 



Fisure 2 



