The 



Outlook 



for 



Timber 



Demands 



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This section presents estimates of quantities of 

 timber products that might be used in the United 

 States in future years under specified assumptions 

 relating to growth in population and economic 

 activity and availability of raw materials. These 

 estimates — called projected demands in this 

 study — are compared with prospective timber 

 supplies in the following sections. 



The projected demands indicate levels of con- 

 sumption that might be expected in the future if 

 all the stated and implicit assumptions influencing 

 demand and supply were realized. If future con- 

 ditions differ appreciably from these assumptions, 

 actual use of wood products would of course be 

 expected to differ from the projected demands. 



In developing these projections it has been 

 necessary to depend in part on historical statistics. 

 These contain within them implicit trends and 

 relationships in such factors as prices, consumer 

 tastes, and technological developments in indus- 

 tries producing both wood products and com- 

 peting materials. Use of such data assumes in 

 some degree continuation of trends similar to those 

 that have prevailed in the past. 



Insofar as possible, however, an attempt has 

 been made to take into account new factors and 

 changing relationships, and to adopt those assump- 

 tions and judgments as to future trends which at 

 this time appear most reasonable. These assump- 

 tions and the methods employed in projecting 

 different uses of wood products are indicated in 

 some detail in following parts of this section. 



The projections developed in this study extend 

 to the year 2000. Such a long-range evaluation 



of prospective markets for wood products is 

 considered necessary in view of the long cycle 

 involved in growing timber crops, and the resulting 

 necessity of judging today's forestry programs in 

 the light of timber demands that may exist in a 

 distant future. 



BASIC ASSUMPTIONS 



A primary influence on future demand for timber 

 and other products will undoubtedly be the growth 

 in general economic activity in the United States. 

 Several measures of prospective growth, including 

 population, households, gross national product, 

 disposable personal income, and construction 

 activity, have been used in the following analysis. 



Population Projected to 

 325 Million in 2000 



Between 1920 and 1962 the population of the 

 United States increased approximately 75 percent, 

 rising from 107 million people to about 187 million 

 (table 1 and fig. 1). For the purpose of this 

 study it has been assumed that population will 

 rise to about 325 million persons by 2000. This 

 would represent a compound annual growth rate 

 of 1.5 percent annually, compared with an average 

 rate of 1.4 percent from 1910 to 1930, about 0.9 

 percent from 1930 to 1945, and 1.7 percent from 

 1945 to 1960. 



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