4 



TIMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



tains, will be required before full advantage can 

 be taken of opportunities for intensified timber 

 utilization and management. Much of the forest 

 land in these sections is still inaccessible for 

 thinning and other cultural activities, and sub- 

 stantial volumes of timber will become available 

 for harvesting only with completion of a major 

 road system. 



(f) Research and development efforts also will 

 be of major importance — to provide the knowledge 

 needed for more efficient management of forest 

 resources and improved technology in the wood- 

 using industries. 



10. Forest industries depend on farm and mis- 

 cellaneous ownerships for half of their raw 

 material requirements. 



Production of timber on lands owned by farmers 

 and miscellaneous private owners is of key im- 

 portance in the United States, particularly in the 

 East. These ownerships include the major part 

 of the commercial forest land in the United 

 States — about 60 percent of the total. They con- 

 tain about 40 percent of the current inventory of 

 growing stock. In recent years they have fur- 

 nished nearly half the total cut of pulpwood, 

 saw logs, and other timber products used by the 

 forest industries. 



National forests and other public ownerships 

 also must contribute a substantial part of an 

 expanded cut in future decades, partly because 

 of the uncertainty of achieving increased growth 

 of timber on farm and miscellaneous private 

 holdings. In addition, public forests contain well 

 over half of the Nation's remaining supply of 

 sawtimber, including much of the higher quality 

 softwoods. These public forests have furnished 

 about 25 percent of the total timber harvest in 

 recent years. 



Industrial holdings, which compose 13 percent 

 of the commercial forest area, likewise are of major 

 importance as a source of future timber supplies. 

 Much timberland of high site quality is concen- 

 trated in these ownerships, and investment capital 

 and forest management skills are generally avail- 

 able. Industry lands contain about 15 percent 

 of the total growing stock volume. They have 

 been furnishing about 26 percent of the total 

 timber cut. Together with public forests, these 

 properties can be expected to furnish much of the 

 larger and higher quality timber available in the 

 future. 



11. The long-range outlook and uncertainties of 

 projections must be considered in formulating 

 forestry programs. 



This appraisal of the Nation's timber situation 

 indicates that supplies of timber over the next 



two or three decades could support a substantial 

 expansion of markets for timber products, although 

 trends in timber quality represent an increasingly 

 serious problem. 



Furthermore, projected demands to the year 

 2000 at least could be met if forestry programs were 

 intensified more or less in line with recent trends, 

 if present areas of forest land remain available, 

 and if industrial technology is further developed 

 to permit use of the kinds of timber prospectively 

 available. The United States might also import 

 somewhat larger volumes of timber products 

 than assumed in this study, although economic 

 prospects for increased imports appear much less 

 promising than the physical availability of foreign 

 timber supplies. 



There are many uncertainties, however, in 

 projecting timber demands and supplies over a 

 period of several decades. Thus by the year 2000, 

 and particularly in subsequent years, substantial 

 areas of forest land could be lost to other uses. 

 Such possible reductions in forest area together 

 with increasing pressures on remaining forest lands 

 for recreation, wildlife, and other uses in addition 

 to timber could materially reduce available sup- 

 phes of timber below projected levels. 



It is also possible that population and economic 

 activity, and resulting demands for timber, may 

 be higher or lower than projected in this appraisal. 

 Increasing world demands for timber products, 

 for example, could result in export demands on 

 U.S. forest resources beyond those assumed in this 

 study. Continuation of a high rate of population 

 growth also could lead to domestic demands for 

 raw materials in the next century much in excess 

 of the projections of this study. 



Setting specific timber growth goals to achieve 

 some ideal balance of supply and demand at 

 future target dates thus involves many factors 

 that must necessarily be appraised on a judgment 

 basis. This is due in part to the many uncer- 

 tainties involved in appraising distant markets, 

 and in part to a lack of information on costs and 

 responses of alternative timber growing programs. 

 It seems evident, however, that some intensifica- 

 tion of timber production efforts will be necessary 

 if supplies of usable timber in the year 2000 are 

 to reach the levels of projected demand. 



Much progress has been made in improving the 

 timber supply situation throughout the United 

 States. And considerable progress has been made 

 in expanding markets for industrial wood products. 

 Much still remains to be done — on the one hand 

 to achieve potential markets for wood in an in- 

 creasingly competitive economy, and on the other 

 to supply the amounts and qualities of timber that 

 forest industries can profitably use in supplying 

 tomorrow's markets for wood products. 



