THE OUTLOOK IN BRIEF 



material is limited. In recent years about half 

 the hardwood plywood and veneer used in the 

 United States has been imported, partly at least 

 because of the diminishing availability of suitable 

 timber in U.S. forests. 



Further declines in tree size and quality are to 

 be expected if timber cut and growth follow the 

 projections of this study and management con- 

 tinues at recent levels. Thus the proportion of 

 the total cut of hardwoods coming from trees 

 larger than 15 inches in diameter is projected to 

 drop from 52 percent in 1962 to 32 percent by 

 2000. In western stands similar marked declines 

 in the proportion of the cut from larger and more 

 valuable trees are in prospect. 



8. The timber supply outlook is relatively favorable 

 for the pulp and paper industry, but not as 

 encouraging for the lumber and plywood in- 

 dustries. 



For industries dependent primarily upon wood 

 fiber, including particularly the pulp and paper 

 industry, the outlook for timber supplies appears 

 relatively favorable — even though further ad- 

 justments to smaller timber and greater use of 

 hardwoods appear necessary. In recent years 

 this industry has achieved an impressive increase 

 in use of hardwoods, from 14 percent of the total 

 pulpwood used in 1950 to 20 percent in 1962. 

 Use of chips from sawmill and plywood plant 

 residues has increased even more sharply, rising 

 from 6 percent of the total pulpwood used in 

 1950 to 21 percent in 1962. Further adaptations 

 to available timber supplies appear to be tech- 

 nically feasible in this industry. 



For the lumber and plywood industries, on the 

 other hand, the timber supply situation in most 

 regions is much less favorable. Trends in timber 

 size and quality point to rising costs of production 

 and increased marketing problems, unless marked 

 improvements in technology are achieved. For 

 these industries especially, the adequacy of raw 

 material supplies does not depend on the total 

 inventory of fiber, but rather on the operable 

 supply of wood of desirable quality and sufficient 

 size and volume to permit low-cost processing 

 and production of salable products. 



9. Projected timber demands to the year 2000 could 

 be met with more intensive forest management 

 and utilization. 



The Nation's commercial forest lands have the 

 capability of producing substantially more than 

 the growth projected assuming recent levels of 

 forest management. Thus if all the present area 

 of commercial forest land in each region were 

 managed as well as the better managed properties, 

 the resulting "realizable growth" would in time 

 reach an estimated 27.5 billion cubic feet, includ- 



ing 100 billion board feet of sawtimber. In 

 contrast, projected growth with recent levels of 

 management reaches a peak of about 65 billion 

 board feet of sawtimber. Projected demands 

 around the year 2000 total about 81 billion board 

 feet. 



A number of technical forestry measures could 

 be strengthened to increase future supplies of 

 timber in line with projected demands. 



(a) Timber stand improvement today appears 

 to represent the major technical opportunity for 

 improving the timber supply situation over the 

 next few decades. Most forest lands now support 

 an increasingly heavy cover of vegetation. In 

 many areas this includes a nucleus of desirable 

 tree 3 that could be developed by thinning, re- 

 moval of cull trees, or other cultural work. In 

 recent years stand improvement work in the 

 United States has covered about 1.7 million acres 

 annually —a sizable area but a small fraction of all 

 young-growth forests. 



(b) Planting or seeding of productive sites 

 also offers opportunities for increasing future 

 yields of timber, particularly in the period after 

 2000. Moreover, in some western forests shorten- 

 ing of the regeneration period after logging by 

 prompt planting of desirable species would make 

 possible an immediate increase in the allowable 

 cut. In recent years tree planting has covered 

 about 1.3 million acres annually. But more than 

 100 million acres of commercial forest land is at 

 present either "nonstocked" or "poorly stocked" 

 with trees of acceptable quality or species. 



(c) Increased protection from fire, insects, 

 disease, and other destructive agents offers addi- 

 tional possibihties for expanding wood supplies. 

 Mortality losses have been greatly reduced in 

 recent decades through intensified control efforts. 

 But mortality in 1962 still totaled nearly 20 

 billion board feet, or the equivalent of 35 percent 

 of the net growth of timber. Such losses to 

 destructive agents could be reduced by intensify- 

 ing fire and pest control, and by increased thin- 

 nings and other management measures to forestall 

 mortality. 



(d) Closer utihzation of timber in the woods 

 and in manufacturing plants also would stretch 

 available timber supplies. Salvage of dead 

 timber might be raised above recent levels of 

 around 1 billion board feet annually through 

 expansion of prelogging operations in old-growth 

 stands and other salvage efforts. Greater use of 

 logging residues and material now unused at 

 sawmills and other manufacturing plants also 

 could augment supplies of round timber. Con- 

 tinuing increases in efficiency in the forest indus- 

 tries similarly would permit a larger output of 

 products from a given supply of raw material. 



(e_) Accelerated road construction programs, 

 particularly in the Pacific coast and Rocky Moun- 



