THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER SUPPLIES 



111 



The reliability of projections consequently 

 decreases the farther they are extended into the 

 future, and each projection must be considered as 

 falling within a steadily widening band of un- 

 certainty. For this reason frequent and regular 

 checking of the actual course of events is necessary 

 to allow ample time for realinement of action 

 progi'ams. 



The target date for the projections in this section 

 is the year 2000 — a seemingly distant date but a 

 relatively short-term target in the business of 

 growing timber. Most of the trees that will be 

 suitable for harvesting in the year 2000 are now in 

 the ground, or must be established in the very 

 near future. 



No attempt has been made to estimate prospec- 

 tive supplies and demands beyond the year 2000 

 even though a major part of the benefits from 

 current forestry efforts in planting, stand im- 

 provement, and other measures will be realized 

 after that date. It is also likely that rapidly 

 rising populations and raw material requirements 

 will increasingly magnify the pressure of people 

 on all natural resources. Consequently, an analy- 



sis extending only to 2000 will undoubtedly 

 understate the raw material problems of the next 

 century. 



PROJECTION PROCEDURES 



The projections of timber gi'owth and inven- 

 tories presented in this section have been derived 

 for the four major sections of the country — 

 the North, South, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific 

 coast — through use of a "stand projection" 

 procedure that is described in detail in appendix 3. 



In brief, the first step in this procedure required 

 the compilation of current stand and stock tables 

 as of January 1, 1963, for each forest region, by 

 updating the latest timber survey information 

 available. These tables showed numbers and 

 volumes of trees by 2-inch diameter classes, by 

 softwoods and hardwoods in the East, and by 

 ownership classes in the West. 



Annual changes in numbers of trees by diameter 

 classes were then computed for the period 1963- 

 2000, using a total volume of cut as indicated in 

 the following section on Cutting Assumptions, 

 and radial growth rates, mortality rates, and 



Table 74, — Sawtimher cut in the United States, by sections, 1952-2000 



[Billion board feet] 



Section 



1952 



1962 





Allocated cut 







1970 



1980 



1990 



2000 



Pacific coast: 

 National forest 



2.8 

 17.3 



7.5 

 15.6 



8.3 

 16.3 



8.5 

 15.7 



8.7 

 15.4 



8.9 



Other owners,- . . . 



15.4 







Total . _ 



20.1 



23.1 



24.6 



24.2 



24.1 



24.3 







Rocky Mountains: 

 National forest . 



1.0 

 1.4 



2.2 

 1.6 



2.8 

 1.7 



3.6 

 1.9 



4.1 

 2.0 



4.2 



Other owners 



2.1 



Total 



2.4 



3.8 



4.5 



5.5 



6.1 



6.3 



South: 



Softwoods 



Hardwoods 



11.7 

 7.9 



8.4 

 7.0 



10.5 

 6.9 



14.3 

 7.6 



19.5 

 8.6 



26.1 

 10.1 



Total 



19.6 



15.4 



17.4 



21.9 



28.1 



36.2 



North: 

 Softwoods 



2.4 

 4.3 



1.9 

 4.2 



1.8 

 5.3 



2.0 

 6.8 



2.5 



8.7 



3.2 



Hardwoods 



11.0 



Total 



6.7 



6.1 



7.1 



8.8 



11.2 



14.2 



United States: 



Softwoods 



Hardwoods 



36.5 

 12.3 



36.7 

 11.7 



41.0 

 12.6 



45.6 

 14.8 



51.8 



17.7 



59,5 

 21.5 



Total 



48.8 



48.4 



53.6 



60.4 



69.5 



81.0 



