118 



TIMBER TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES 



The anticipated drop in the proportion of such 

 larger timber in the cut from non-national forest 

 lands, from 63 percent in 1962 to 15 percent in 

 2000, is particularly important, since two-thirds 

 of the total log harvest in this section is expected 

 to be still coming from these lands in 2000. These 

 prospective declines in average size of timber 

 harvested will require continuing adjustments by 

 the timber industries. 



About 35 Percent Increase in 

 Sawtimber Growth Projected by 2000 



Forest management efforts in the Pacific Coast 

 States in recent years have consisted mainly of 

 harvesting methods designed to assure regenera- 

 tion, intensive fire protection, measures to reduce 

 losses from insects and diseases, and the planting 

 and reseeding of about 200,000 acres annually. 

 Projections of net growth were made on the 

 assumption that these recent levels of management 

 would continue. 



With this management assumption, and the 

 allocated cut indicated previously, sawtimber 

 growth is projected to climb steadily during the 

 rest of the century from 13.5 billion board feet 

 in 1962 to 18.2 billion board feet in 2000— a rise 

 of nearly 5 billion board feet (table 77 and fig. 52). 



This rapid upswing of net growth reflects in the 

 main the past liquidation of old stands having 

 little net growth and their replacement by young, 

 vigorous stands that have reached or will reach 

 sawtimber size before the year 2000. Cutting of 

 private timber has been going on longer and has 

 been heavier than the cut on pubUc lands. Hence 

 the buildup of sawtimber growth is mainly con- 

 centrated on nonnational forest lands, reaching 

 12.6 billion board feet by 2000, compared with 

 5.6 billion board feet on national forests. 



These projections for the Pacific coast section 

 indicate that by 2000 the sawtimber cut will still 

 exceed sawtimber growth by about 6 billion board 

 feet annually. However, as conversion from an 

 old-growth to a young growth economy will be 

 still continuing throughout this period, it is not 

 necessary that growth equal the cut in this 

 century. With present cutting policies it will be 

 nearly a century before the old-growth timber is 

 completely liquidated on the public holdings. 



Projected Sawtimber Inventories Decline 

 More than 20 Percent by 2000 



Under the cutting and management assumptions 

 adopted, sawtimber inventories in the Pacific 

 coast section are projected to decline from 1,397 



billion board feet in 1962 to 1,087 billion board 

 feet in 2000. 



In the forests of western Washington and 

 Oregon, which contain half the sawtimber on the 

 Pacific coast, growing stock could be reduced by 

 an estimated one-third under current levels of 

 management, and by considerably more with 

 intensified management, and still sustain a rela- 

 tively high level of cut. This outcome would of 

 course be contingent upon harvesting practices 

 that result in a desirable distribution of tree sizes 

 while the reduction in volume is taking place. 



As in the case of timber cut, sizable changes in 

 the size distribution of timber inventories are in 

 prospect. Volumes in trees over 29 inches in 

 diameter, for example, drop from 43 percent of the 

 total 1962 inventory on national forests to 27 

 percent of the projected inventory in the year 2000 

 (table 79). On other lands the projected volume 

 in these larger diameters drops from 36 percent in 

 1962 to 7 percent by 2000. It is evident, therefore, 

 that by 2000 the conversion of old-growth forests 

 will have progressed considerably further on 

 private holdings than on the national forests. 



Table 79. — Distribution of inventory volumes on 

 the Pacific coast, by diameter classes, 1963 and 

 2000 





All 



National 



Other 



Tree 



ownerships 



forests 



ownerships 



diameter 













(inches) 

















1962 



2000 



1962 



2000 



1962 



2000 





Per- 



Per- 



Per- 



Per- 



Per- 



Per- 





cent 



cent 



cent 



cent 



cent 



cent 



5.0-11.0 



12 



21 



10 



18 



14 



26 



11.0-15.0 



11 



20 



10 



16 



14 



24 



15.0-19.0 



11 



17 



10 



14 



12 



20 



19.0-29.0 



26 



24 



27 



25 



24 



23 



29.0+ 



40 



18 



43 



27 



36 



7 



TotaL___ 



100 



100 



100 



100 



100 



100 



With present levels of management, average 

 net growth rates for sawtimber on the Pacific 

 coast, particularly in the national forests, are 

 expected to remain relatively low over the pro- 

 jection period because of the large area remaining 

 in old-growth and continued heavy mortality 

 losses, as shown by the following tabulation of 

 growth as a percent of inventory : 



Year: 



1962. 

 2000_ 



National 

 forests 

 0.44 

 .87 



Other ~t 

 properties 



1. 67 



2. 83 



