

^1^ 





"**S^:-lb. 



^^5^' 







f>» ^r"^? 





3.' -^■'^ 



F-452654 



Construction of access roads is basic to timber harvesting and improvement of forest manasement. 



Future Consumption of Timber Dependent on Many 

 Uncertain Supply and Demand Factors 



Actual consumption of timber products in 

 future years will depend both upon timber sup- 

 plies forthcoming as a result of public and private 

 forestry efforts, and the rate at which markets for 

 timber products can be expanded. There are ob- 

 viously many uncertainties in appraising long- 

 range trends in both timber supplies and demands. 



On the supply side, for example, losses of forest 

 land to other uses may be considerable by the 

 year 2000. In addition, an increasing portion of 

 the area classed as commercial forest is also used 

 for related or competing purposes such as recrea- 

 tion, wildlife habitat, or water protection as well 

 as timber growing. Because of these impacts of 

 competing uses, the supply of timber available for 

 harvesting by the forest industries in the year 

 2000 may be significantly less than projected in 

 this study. Intensification of forest management 

 programs, on the other hand, could greatly 

 increase future timber supplies. 

 _ On the demand side, it is possible that popula- 

 tion and economic activity in the United States 

 will expand more rapidly or more slowly than is 

 assumed here, and that demands for timber and 

 other raw materials will consequently differ from 

 the projections developed in this study. New 



uses, new export or domestic markets for wood, 

 and unforeseen changes in technology, also could 

 materially change the outlook for timber demands. 



Establishment of specific growth goals to 

 achieve some ideal balance of timber supply and 

 demand at future target dates thus must be largely 

 a matter of judgment — both because of the many 

 uncertainties in appraising distant markets for 

 timber and competing materials, and current lack 

 of information on the costs and responses of timber 

 growing progress. It seems evident, however, 

 that achievement of the levels of projected de- 

 mand for timber around the end of this century 

 will require some intensification of forest manage- 

 ment and protection, as well as continuing tech- 

 nical adjustments in the forest industries to use 

 the kind of timber prospectively available. 



This analysis has been limited to a period end- 

 ing in the year 2000, a relatively short time in the 

 business of growing timber. With continued 

 growth in numbers of people and economic output 

 beyond the year 2000, the estimates of timber de- 

 mands projected in this study may in time seem 

 modest indeed. A long lead time is necessary in 

 timber production. Hence judgments regarding 

 such longer range market possibilities and pro- 

 spective timber supply problems also must be 

 considered in the formulation of today's forestry 

 programs. 



744-350 O— 65- 



-10 



