Outlook in Timber Production 



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THE FACT thaf'the total output of products has 

 been sustained at a fairly high level for at least 

 three decades does not, in itself, insure a promis- 

 ing outlook. Industry has made adjustments in 

 utilizing trees more completely, in utilizing trees of 

 species, sizes, and qualities which were formely not 

 marketable; and industry, forest landowners, and pub- 

 lic agencies have made scattered efforts to increase 

 timber growth and yields through better forest man- 

 agement. But in spite of these adjustments and 

 efforts, the output of timber products could not be sus- 

 tained except by depleting the forest resource. This 

 raises some serious questions about forest industry's 

 prospects in regard to its raw material. 



What Is the Outlook Under Current Trends? 



The outlook for raw material, of course, is not the 

 same for all products. Some industries enjoy a 

 stronger competitive position for timber than others; 

 and size, quality, and species requirements give some 

 timber users a larger resource to draw on than others. 

 What will actually happen for individual products 

 cannot be forecast here, but we can point out the 

 present directions. 



Two basic qualifications underlie the following dis- 

 cussion for individual products. One is that the same 

 amount of improvement in forest management is as- 

 sumed in the years ahead as in the years between the 

 two Forest Surveys. The other is the assumption that 

 forest industry needs to use timber of the same sizes, 

 species, and quality that it uses now. These qualifi- 

 cations, it must be emphasized, are made to simplify 

 the discussion; they are not intended as a forecast of 

 what will happen. Accelerated improvement in forest 

 management and less exacting requiremicnts for raw 

 timber material would make the outlook more favor- 

 able than is indicated here. 



Lumber 



Observations about the outlook for total timber pro- 

 duction apply most strongly to lumber, since sawlogs 

 comprise about half of the output of raw timber 

 products. 



Between the two Forest Surveys, when average soft- 

 wood lumber manufacture amounted to 925 million 

 board feet annually, sawlog volume of softwood species 

 dropped 29 percent. If we assume that in the next 

 14-year period, an attempt is made to manufacture 

 softwood lumber at about the 1947 level (some 900 

 million board feet), the decline in softwood growing 

 stock will continue to be large and curtailed output 

 will be unavoidable. This conclusion is reinforced 

 by the realization that pulpwood competition for pine 

 timber will be far stronger than it has been. Already, 

 nearly 30 percent of the pine volume cut for sawlogs 

 is in trees below 14 inches d. b. h., the same sizes in 

 which pulpwood cutting is concentrated. 



Hardwood sawlog volume did not decline between 

 the two Surveys as much as softwood, but the better 

 quality trees and more desired species have been de- 

 pleted much faster than the 20-percent decline in hard- 

 wood sawlog volume indicates. In terms of the usable 

 resource for sawlogs under present standards of 

 utilization, the decline in hardwood sawlog volume 

 may be even greater than the drop in softwood. The 

 picture for hardwood lumber is clouded further by the 

 fact that current hardwood lumber manufacture (509 

 million board feet in 1947) is about one-fourth more 

 than it averaged between the two Surveys. If we 

 think in terms of sustaining the current level of lumber 

 manufacture, the outlook for hardwood is no better 

 than that for softwood. 



Pulpwood 



Two factors — the prospect of reduced timber in- 

 ventory because of the great expansion in pulpwood 

 production which has already occurred, and increasing 

 competition for small trees with the lumber industry — 

 may provide an effective brake to further expansion in 

 pine pulpwood cutting. The generally well-managed 

 pulp company lands are not extensive enough to pro- 

 duce more than part of recent pulpwood requirements. 



The cutting of pulpwood, which occurs principally 

 in trees 6 to 12 inches d. b. h., has not been enough to 

 change the total softwood volume in these tree sizes 

 between the Forest Surveys of 1932-35 and 1946-48., 



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