A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



pulp wood, all industrial wood, and all timber 

 products. This is due to the difference in the age 

 composition of the 360 million population assumed 

 for 2000 for the upper projection and the 275 

 million assumed for the medium projection. The 

 360 million has a much larger proportion of childi*en 

 and young persons not old enough to be in the labor 

 force or to have established separate homes than 

 does the 275 milUion. Another way of saying it is 

 that the standard of hvkig for the upper projection 

 in 2000 is not quite as high as would be the stand- 

 ard of living if there were only 275 million persons 

 in that year. Per capita disposable income, for 

 example, might be about 8 percent less for the 360 

 million population than for 275 million. The 

 term "upper projection," therefore, does not mean 

 upper in terms of standard of living or per capita 

 demand. It does mean "upper" in terms of popu- 

 lation and total demand. 



An interesting comparison is the amounts of 

 the various timber products that would, be con- 

 sumed in 1975 and 2000 if per capita consumption 

 in those years was the same as in 1952 (table 9) 

 and a comparison of these amounts with projected 

 demand (table 7). Holding per capita consump- 

 tion the same, there would be a 37-percent in- 

 crease over 1952 in each product and a 75-percent 

 increase by 2000 for a population of 275 million, 



21 



or a 1 29-percent increase in that year for a popula- 

 tion of 360 million. The projected demand for 

 lumber, for example, is less in all cases than would 

 be consumption at the 1952 per capita rate except 

 for the medium projected demand in the year 

 2000. The projected demand for pulpwood, on 

 the other hand, exceeds what would be the con- 

 sumption in both 1975 and 2000 at the 1952 per 

 capita rate. 



One of the most significant of all comparisons 

 is that consumption of all timber products would 

 increase from 12.3 billion cubic feet in 1952 to 

 28.2 billion cubic feet in 2000 with a population of 

 360 million if per capita rates are held the same. 

 In contrast, the upper projected demand in 2000 

 for all timber products is 26.2 billion cubic feet. 

 Thus holding per capita rates constant at the 1952 

 level would result in slightly greater consumption 

 than meeting the upper projected demand in 2000. 

 Even in terms of all industrial wood, the upper 

 projected demand in 2000 would be only slightly 

 more than consumption at the 1952 per capita 

 rate. 



These comparisons of per capita projected de- 

 mand and per capita consumption at 1952 rates 

 can only lead to the conclusion that the estimates 

 of projected demand are reasonable and con- 

 servative. 



Table 9. — Consumption in 1952 of selected timber products and consumption in 1975 and 2000 if per 



capita rates continue constant 



Year and population 



Change 

 from 19521 



Saw logs 

 for lumber 



Pulpwood 



All indus- 

 trial wood 



Fuelwood 



All timber 

 products 



1952, 157 million . . . ______ 



Percent 



Million 

 bd.-ft. 

 41,462 

 56, 760 



72, 600 

 95, 040 



Million 

 cords 

 .35.4 

 48. 4 



61. 9 

 81.0 



Million 



cu. ft. 

 10, 266 

 14,061 



17, 985 

 23, 544 



Million 

 cu. ft. 

 2,008 



2, 752 



3, 520 



4, 608 



Million 

 cu. ft. 

 12 274 



1975, 215 million 



2000: 



275 million 



+ 37 



+ 75 

 + 129 



16, 813 

 21 505 



360 million 



28 152 







Percentage changes are the same for each product grouping. 



Projected Demand Converted to Timber 

 Gut 



Projections of timber demand have been ex- 

 pressed up to now in terms of either standard 

 units of measure such as board-feet for lumber, 

 cords for pulpwood, or linear feet for piling, or in 

 terms of cubic feet of roundwood, which is the 

 volume of logs and bolts cut from trees and taken 

 out for use. Projections of demand in terms of 

 cubic feet of roundwood include net imports. 

 Thus, projections of demand expressed in either 

 standard units of measure or cubic feet of round- 

 wood volume correspond to estimates of past con- 

 sumption with which they have been compared. 



Before projections of demand can be related to 

 growth and the inventory of standing timber as 



done in the last section on Timber Supply Outlook, 

 they must be converted to the amount of timber 

 needed to be cut from growing stock and saw- 

 timber in order to supply the projected demand. 

 This conversion is not a simple process and requires 

 taking into account a number of factors such as 

 the amount of timber exported and imported, 

 trends toward improved utilization, and the por- 

 tion of demand that may come from dead or cull 

 trees, from noncommercial forest land, and from 

 nonforest land. The steps in this process which 

 are explained at the close of the section on Future 

 Demand for Timber include: (1) Reducing the 

 projected demand for each of the individual 

 products listed in tables 5 and 6 by the estimated 

 net imports for that product in order to obtain the 

 domestic output, and (2) the application of utilize- 



