16 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICAS FUTURE 



Table 4. — Key assumptions for projections oj timber demand 



Projections 



Population 



Gross national 



product in 1953 



dollars 



Price 





1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 





Medium 



Millions 

 215 



■228 

 215 



Millions 

 275 



360 



275 



Billion 



dollars 



630 



' 645 

 630 



Billion 



dollars 



1, 200 



1, 450 

 1, 200 



TNo change in relative prices; trends in future price of tim- 



< ber products will, in general, parallel price trends of 



[ competing materials. 

 Same as for medium projection. 



[Future prices of timber products will rise substantially 

 faster than prices of competing materials; with resulting 

 extensive price-induced substitution of non-wood ma- 



[ terials for timber products. 



Upper 



Lower 



' Not used. So close to medium level that upper level projections were not estimated for 1975. 



3. None of the projections is a forecast of what 

 will occur. They are alternative choices based 

 upon reasonable assumptions. An infinite variety 

 of other alternatives could be developed. 



In general terms, both the medium and upper 

 projections are based on assumptions which mean 

 that industrial timber products would occupy 

 about the same relative role in the economy as 

 they do today. The only difference between the 

 two is a larger population for the upper projection. 

 The medium and upper levels assume in effect a 

 status quo role for wood. In contrast, the lower 

 projection assumes higher relative prices and a 

 declining role for wood in which industrial wood 

 would become relatively less important in the 

 economy of the Nation in the future than it is 

 today. 



The Forest Service believes that the medium 

 projection offers a reasonable and desirable objec- 

 tive as a matter of public policy. This is so for 

 two reasons: (1) It is desirable to grow a con- 

 tinuing supply of wood as a basic and renewable 

 raw material in such amounts that wood may 

 continue in the future to occupy about the same 

 role in the national economy as it does at present; 

 and (2) the amount of timber that must be grown 

 to meet the medium projected demand is shown 

 to be reasonably obtainable although rapid accel- 

 eration and intensification of forestry will be 

 required. 



Summary of Timber Demand Projec- 

 tions 



The translation of the economic assumptions 

 summarized above to projections of timber de- 

 mand is a complex, detailed, and highly technical 



process which is explained fully in the section on 

 Future Demand for Timber. The purpose in this 

 section is to summarize the end results for each of 

 the three projections and for both 1975 and 2000. 



All Projections Point to Demand Higher Than 

 1952 Consumption 



Projected demand for 1975 and 2000, and con- 

 sumption in 1952 are summarized by products in 

 tables 5 and 6 and figure 7. In table 5 the projec- 

 tions are in terms of standard units of measure for 

 the individual products. In table 6 a conversion to 

 cubic feet of roundwood has been made in order 

 to permit the development of totals. 



Combining all products, the lower, medium, and 

 upper projected timber demands in 2000 are 46, 

 83, and 114 percent greater, respectively, than 

 1952 consumption (table 7). Lumber demand for 

 the medium projection in 2000 is 91 percent above 

 the 1952 consumption and the corresponding 

 increase for pulpwood is 182 percent. 



In terms of industrial wood, the increases in 

 relation to 1952 are even more striking than for 

 all timber products. The reason for this is that 

 fuelwood was about 16 percent of all timber prod- 

 ucts consumed in 1952 and the projection for fuel- 

 wood indicates nearly a 60-percent decline by 1975 

 and a 74-perceut decline b_y 2000. In other words, 

 it is expected that fuelwood will decline from 16 

 percent of the total in 1952 to 2 percent of the 

 total by 2000. Such a rapid decline of an im- 

 portant item offsets in part the large increases in 

 lumber and pulpwood. In terms of industrial 

 wood which is believed to be the better indicator, 

 the medium projected demand indicates a 50- 

 percent increase over 1952 by 1975 and 114-per- 

 cent increase bv 2000. 



