A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



15 



the importance of fuelwood may be expected to 

 grow progressively less. 



3. There has been more than a 50-percent de- 

 crease in per capita consumption of lumber since 

 1900. Despite this the total consumption of lum- 

 ber has held up and has increased substantially 

 since the 1930's. In 1955, it was at approximatel}^ 

 the same level as in 1900. 



4. Perhaps the most outstanding major develop- 

 ment in wood consumption has been the rapid 

 increase in use of pulpwood. The per capita 

 consumption of pulpwood has tripled since 1920. 

 The actual consumption of pulpwood was five 

 times greater in 1955 than in 1920. As a result of 

 these increases, pulpwood now makes up over 

 one-fourth of the total consumption of industrial 

 wood products whereas it comprised only 2 per- 

 cent in the early 1900's. Pulpwood is the prin- 

 cipal cause for wood maintaining about the same 

 proportion (20 percent) of the total mix of physical- 

 structure raw materials in 1952 as it comprised in 

 1925-40. 



5. Since 1935, there has been an upswing in 

 both total and per capita consumption of all 

 industrial wood. Total consumption in 1952 was 

 at an all-time high and per capita consumption 

 was at the 1929 level. 



Timber Demand 

 Meaning of Projected Timber Demand 



Estirr.ates of potential demand for timber 

 products at specified future times under various 

 sets of assumed conditions arc termed "projected 

 timber demand." Such estimates are not to be 

 regarded as forecasts of actual futiu-e consumption 

 of timber products. They are somewhat analo- 

 gous to the potential demand estimates frequently 

 made by large manufacturing concerns to serve as 

 guidelines for planning their marketing and pro- 

 duction facilities. 



Attempts to look 25 to 50 years into the future 

 entail much uncertainty about every factor to be 

 considered. Nevertheless, it is impossible to 

 escape the fact that the growing of commercial 

 timber inevitably involves the planning of opera- 

 tions over long periods of time. What is done on 

 the forest lands of the United States during the 

 next decade or two will largely determine the 

 supply of timber in the year 2000. 



Much has been done in the past to improve the 

 outlook for timber supply. Much more can be 

 done to improve it still further. Policy decisions 

 as to what is needed depend to a considerable 

 degree on estimates of projected demand for timber 

 products. 



For any enterprise as economically important as 

 the production and utilization of timber products, 

 supply plays some role in the generation of its 

 own demand, and demand certainl}" exerts an 



influence upon supply. In case of timber, how- 

 ever, response on the supply side cannot become 

 effective in one year or in ten. The apparent 

 ease or difficulty of economically developing a 

 supply commensurate with projected timber 

 demand provides some clue as to future trend of 

 timber prices. Prospective demand higher than 

 prospective supply indicates a probability of 

 upward movement of timber price, but higher and 

 higher relative price for one of the Nation's basic 

 raw materials would not be conducive to continued 

 improvement in the general standard of living. 

 It would not be good public policy to base forestry 

 programs for the future solely upon estimates of 

 either potential demand that assumes a further 

 substantial increase in the relative price of timber 

 products or future timber supplies less than the 

 Nation can reasonably grow. 



Three Levels of Demand Developed 



Three projections of timber demand have been 

 made. For convenience these are termed "medi- 

 um projection," "upper projection," and "lower 

 projection." The medium and lower projections 

 of timber demand are developed for both 1975 and 

 2000. Upper projected demand is developed 

 only for 2000. The reason for this is that the 

 assumptions upon which upper projected demand 

 would be based for 1975 were so nearly the same 

 as those upon which medium projected demand is 

 developed for that year that no separate upper 

 projection was made for 1975. 



Medium projected demand is the basic projec- 

 tion. The upper and lower projections are 

 variants from it. The medium projected demand 

 is basetl upon certain population, gross national 

 product, and price assumptions. The upper 

 projected demand uses the same price assumptions 

 as the medium projection, but the population and 

 corresponding gross national product are in- 

 creased. On the other hand, the lower projection 

 uses the same population and gross national 

 product assumptions as the medium level, but the 

 price assumption is different. The key assump- 

 tions for each of the three projections are shown 

 in table 4. 



A great many otlier projections of timber de- 

 mand could be made. The purpose of making 

 three projections is to provide a range so that the 

 reader may select such projection or demand as 

 seems most reasonable and desh-able to him in the 

 light of the assumptions upon which the demand 

 projections are based. 



In considering the subsequent projections of 

 timber demand, it is important to bear in mind: 



1. Populations assumed for the medium and 

 lower projections are basically conservative. 



2. Each of the three projections is based on 

 specific assumptions as summarized above. None 

 is a casual estimate. 



