A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



9 



percent by 2000. The upper projection of popu- 

 lation for 2000 is 360 million people, or a 130- 

 percent increase over 1952. It is an extension of 

 the upper level Census Bureau estimate for 1975 

 of 229 million people. 



Despite these substantial percentage increases, 

 the lower population projection is essentially con- 

 servative for several reasons: (1) The 1975 esti- 

 mate of 215 million people is 3 million below the 

 midpoint of the latest (1955) Census Bureau pro- 

 jections for 1975. (2) The year 2000 estimate of 

 275 million people is 23 million below the midpoint 

 of the Forest Service extension of Census Bureau 

 projections. (3) The population projections as- 

 sume no further decline in mortality rates; yet it 

 is reasonable to believe this will occur. (4) In 

 the 52-year period, 1900-52, the population in the 

 United States increased 106 percent, or at a com- 

 pound rate of 1.4 percent annually. The basic 

 population projection for the 48-year period, 1952- 

 2000, is an increase of 75 percent, or at a compound 

 rate of 1.2 percent annually. Thus the population 

 projection is predicated upon a lesser rate of in- 

 crease than has prevailed in the past. (5) Most 

 long-term economic projections of this country's 

 growth which have subsequently been tested by 

 time have fallen short of actuality. 



The 1945 Timber Reappraisal report of the 

 Forest Service, accepting the population projec- 

 tions current at that time, assumed 145 million 

 people for 1950, whereas the Bureau of the Census 

 later enumerated 152 million for that year. Like- 

 wise, the Reappraisal indicated a population of 

 167 to 185 million by 2000. This is roughly 100 

 million persons less than the basic population of 

 275 million used in this study. This difference in 

 population forecast is one of the fundamental 

 reasons for the differences between projected 

 demands for timber made by the Forest Service 

 in its 1945 report and the estimates developed in 

 the Timber Resource Review. 



The second major economic projection is gross 

 national product. It is predicated on population 

 increases as described, on an enlarged total labor 

 force, an approximately stable military force, an 

 increase in the number of employed civilians 

 despite increases in the numbers of unemployed, 

 a decline in the length of the work week, and im- 

 proved man-hour productivity. 



On the basis of such factors, the gross national 

 product is estimated to increase about 78 percent 

 by 1975, or from 354 to 630 billion dollars. It 

 is further estimated to approximately double from 

 1975 to 2000, and to reach 1,200 billion dollars 

 (fig. 2). Although these are very large increases, 

 they are at a lesser rate than has prevailed in the 

 past, and in this respect the estimates for gross 

 national product like those for population are 

 believed to be reasonably conservative. In the 

 48-year period, 1952-2000, the estimated increase 

 in gross national product is 240 percent, which is 



less than the 262-percent increase in the 45-year 

 period, 1910-55. The top estimate for gross 

 national product in 2000 used for the upper pro- 

 jections of timber demand is 1,450 billion dollars. 



In both projections of gross national product, 

 the rate of increase is greater than the rate of 

 population increase (fig. 2). This is due to an 

 allowance for improvement in standards of living 

 which are reflected in gross national product but 

 not in numbers of people. 



The input of raw materials is another important 

 economic criterion. It is important in timbei- 

 demand estimates because the demand for timbei- 

 is related in a general way to the demand for all 

 raw materials. The three general types of raw 

 materials are food, energy, and physical structure 

 materials. The latter includes everything which 

 is not in the food or energy classifications. It 

 includes all wood products except fuel, which is 

 in the energy group. 



Because fuelwood is such a minor component of 

 total wood consumption, only the physical struc- 

 ture materials were considered in projecting the 

 input of raw materials. This, however, is a ver}' 

 broad grouping whicli includes many imlike 

 materials. A common unit of measure for such 

 materials is the "input index," which reflects both 

 quantity and value and is defined as the quantity 

 of each material that could have been bought for 

 one dollar at the 1935-39 national average price. 

 The total input index of physical structure raw 

 materials in 1952 was 5.9 billion units, of which 

 timber products comprised about 20 percent. 



The projected input index of physical structure 

 raw materials is an increase from 5.9 billion units 

 in 1952 to 8.3 and 12.2 billion units in 1975 and 

 2000, respectively. These are increases of 40 and 

 107 percent. For the top projection 2000, the 

 estimated increase in input index in relation to 

 1952 is 149 percent. 



Disposable personal income is an economic 

 criterion which reflects standard of living. It is 

 estimated that disposable personal income (per- 

 sonal income after taxes) will increase from 238 

 billion dollars in 1952 to 441 and 840 billion 

 dollars in 1975 and 2000, respectively. 



In summary, the key economic criteria and esti- 

 mated change in relation to 1952 are: 



2000 



Population 



Gross national product. 





Used in 







lower and 



Used in 





medium 



upper 





timber 



timber 



1975 



projections 



projections 



(percent) 



(percent) 



(percent) 



+ 37 



+ 75 



+ 130 



+ 78 



+ 240 



+ 310 



Timber in the National Economy 



The purpose here is to summarize a few general 

 criteria that indicate the widespread dependence 

 of our economic structure on timber products. 



