A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



In the continental United States, regional 

 boundaries are the same as those used in the 1945 

 Reappraisal Report in order to facilitate com- 

 parison. The regional boundaries follow State 

 lines with two exceptions: (1) The boundary be- 

 tween the Plains and West Gulf Regions in Okla- 

 homa and Texas follows county lines in order to 

 place the main timbered areas of eastern Oklahoma 

 and Texas with the West Gulf Region; (2) county 

 lines are followed between the Northern Rocky 

 Mountain and Plains Region in part of South 

 Dakota in order to place the Black Hills area in 

 the Northern Rocky Mountain Region. 



In grouping regions into sections, there was a 

 choice of placing the Plains Region m the North, 

 in the South, or breaking the region. Because 

 about 80 percent of both the commercial forest 

 area and timber volumes in the Plains Region lies 

 north of the Oklahoma-Kansas line, the entire 

 Plains Region is placed in the North. 



For the first time. Coastal Alaska is treated as 

 a separate region and with the same detail as other 

 regions. Coastal Alaska includes the southeastern 

 panhandle of Alaska and a narrow coastal strip 

 and offshore islands extending westward to Cook 

 Inlet and including Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak 

 and Afognak Islands. 



A FAVORABLE NATIONAL SETTING 



In any attempt to appraise timber resources for 

 the future, some assumptions as to future condi- 

 tions must be made. For example, estimates of 

 prospective demand for timber products cannot 

 be developed except within the framework of cer- 

 tain economic assumptions, nor can prospective 

 supply estimates be developed without certain 

 assumptions as to trends in forestry. The future 

 role of wood in the national economy is related to 

 both demand and supply factors. Hence it is 

 necessary to make a choice between such basic 

 assumptions as peace or war, prosperity or de- 

 pression, population growth or decline, and rising 

 or falling standards of living. 



General Assumptions 



The key assumptions to which the Timber Re- 

 source Review is geared are: Peace but continued 

 military preparedness, a rapid rise in population, 

 economic prosperity and high living standards as 

 reflected in a much larger gross national product, 

 continued importance of forest products as a basic 

 raw material, and continuation of present trends 

 in forestry. 



These general assumptions are translated into a 

 series of specific economic projections which serve 

 as the basis for subsequent projections of future 

 demands for timber. The specific projections are 

 derived mainly from data of the Department of 



Commerce utilizing accepted methods. They are 

 generally in line with the economic projections 

 made by a number of other agencies. However, 

 most economic forecasters do not extend their 

 projections to the year 2000. Consequently, the 

 economic projections for that year have been 

 developed independently by the Forest Service, 

 following the same methods used by the Bureau of 

 the Census for shorter term projections. 



In projecting the general assumptions into the 

 future, two sets of specific projections first were 

 developed for both 1975 and 2000. There was 

 very little difference between them for 1975, so the 

 upper group was discarded for that year. As a 

 consequence, one set of economic projections was 

 used in developing timber-demand estimates for 

 1975 but two sets were used in connection with the 

 demand estimates for the year 2000. The more 

 conservative set of economic projections form 

 the basis for the lower and medium estimates of 

 timber demand. Such projections reflect an 

 intermediate rate of future national economic 

 growth. The second set of economic projections 

 for 2000 are geared to top-level estimates of 

 population and gross national product, and serve 

 as the base for the upper estimate of timber 

 demand in that year. 



An infinite variety of other economic projections 

 could have been used. Those chosen are believed 

 to be reasonable. They reflect the general as- 

 sumptions of peace, prosperity, military pre- 

 paredness, and continued improvement in living 

 standards. To adopt any other outlook in ap- 

 praising a renewable natural resource such as 

 timber, which requires time to mature, would be 

 imdesirable public policy. 



Projections of Population and 

 Gross National Product 



The specific economic projections are essential 

 prerequisites to estimating future timber demand 

 and as such set the stage for the future and are of 

 fundamental importance (table 1). 



Of the several economic projections shown in 

 table 1, popidation and gross national product, 

 which is the total national output of all goods and 

 services, are the two used roost frequently in the 

 subsequent estimations of timber demand. The 

 other economic projections itemized in table 1 

 following population and prior to gross national 

 product, such as total labor force, civilian force, 

 unemployed, employed civilians, work week, and 

 man-hour productivity are essential prerequisites 

 to calculation of the gross national product. 



The population projections are most readily 

 understood. They are that population will in- 

 crease to 215 million persons in 1975 and 275 

 million persons in 2000 (fig. 2). In contrast to 

 the 1952 population of 157 million people, the 

 estimated increases are 37 percent by 1975 and 75 



