A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



89 



This third and concluding major phase appraises 

 the outlook for timber supplies in relation to pros- 

 pective demands. It relates supply and demand 

 and thus offers an opportunity to judge timber 

 prospects for the future. This is essential in a 

 long-time undertaking such as forestry where 

 supply cannot be adjusted on a year-to-year basis, 

 and where supplies at any given future time will 

 largely be predetermined by actions taken many 

 years before. 



This concluding appraisal relates timber supply 

 and demand. The first two of the following steps 

 offer necessary reference points to the comparisons 

 made in the later steps: 



(1) The capacity of the commercial forest land 

 of the United States to grow timber is discussed, 

 and an estimate is made of the growth that could 

 be realized if all such land were, on the average, 

 managed as well as the better managed lands 

 today for comparable sites and types. This esti- 

 mate of "reaUzable" growth serves as a benchmark 

 against which to compare present, needed, and 

 prospective growth estimates. 



(2) An estimate is made of "timber removal." 

 This is the volume of the timber that would have 

 to be cut to meet lower and medium levels of 

 projected demand, plus an additional removal 

 due to unpredictable catastrophes of nature, loss 

 of commercial forest land from timber production, 

 and unforeseen new uses for wood, none of which 

 are accounted for elsewhere. 



(3) The growth and timber inventory needed 

 to sustain estimated timber removals in 1975 and 

 2000 are estimated and compared to growth and 

 inventory in 1952-53. 



(4) Estimates are made of the quantity of 

 standing timber and the amount of growth that 

 might result in 1975 and 2000 if in the interim 

 (a) timber removals each year increased steadily 

 to meet rising demands, and (b) forestry efforts 

 continued to increase as indicated by trends since 

 World War II. The growth and inventory that 

 might be expected under these assumptions are 

 termed "projected growth" and "projected in- 

 ventory." 



(5) Finally an estimate is made of the growth 

 and removal that might be permanently sustained 

 if lower projected timber demands are met until 

 1975 and thereafter growth and removal are kept 

 in balance, assuming throughout that the applica- 

 tion of forestry continues to increase as it has in 

 recent years. This estimate is termed "sustained 

 removal." 



Thus the outlook for futm-e supplies is ap- 

 proached from three directions: (1) How much 

 timber growth and inventory will be needed to 

 sustain prospective demands; (2) how much tim- 

 ber growth and inventory is there likely to be by 

 the end of the century if forestry continues to 

 improve and if rising demands are met each year 

 until then; and (3) at what level can supply and 



demand be balanced if forestry continues to im- 

 prove as it has recently. Comparisons of how 

 much is needed with how much there is likely to 

 be if assumptions hold, and with how much can 

 be sustained, indicate how easy or difficult it may 

 be to meet growing future needs on a sustained 

 basis. 



The subsequent discussion is necessarily con- 

 cise, and the subject is complex. Involved are 

 two periods of estimation, 1975 and 2000; two 

 levels of projected timber demand, lower and 

 medium; two types of timber growth and inven- 

 tory, sawtimber and growing stock; and three 

 species groups, western species, eastern softwoods, 

 and eastern hardwoods. No regional estimates 

 are made because they would add to complexity 

 and the estimates are believed not to be suffi- 

 ciently precise.'* 



In lieu of regional estimates, three species 

 groups are considered which differ in their ability 

 to support timber removal and produce growth. 

 The species groups chosen make it possible to 

 recognize the effects of old-growth timber. 



A great many factors affect the timber outlook. 

 For example, a larger timber supply than esti- 

 mated could result from: More intensive forestry 

 than assumed, including higher standards of 

 stocking; reduction in idle land by shortening the 

 time between harvest and regeneration; better 

 utilization than assumed in woods and mill, in- 

 cluding fuller use of cull volumes and hardwood 

 limbs; use of more timber than assumed from 

 nonforest and noncommercial forest land; and 

 reductions in mortality and growth-impact losses 

 beyond those assumed, especially from diseases 

 and insects. In addition, the timber from In- 

 terior Alaska might come into the commercial 

 market and imports from Canada might be greater 

 than assumed. All these would add to timber 

 supply. 



On the other hand, there are factors that might 

 reduce supply or increase prospective demand 

 beyond that estimated. These could include 

 underestimates of future population, gross national 

 product, and other economic factors that influence 

 demand; unforeseen national emergencies; extra- 

 ordinary catastrophic losses beyond those account- 

 ed for; failure of expected accelerated trends in 

 forestry to actually take place; unexpected 

 reductions in commercial forest land acreage due 

 to unforeseen extension of higliways, urban areas, 

 power lines, and reservoirs; priority use of com- 

 mercial forest land for watersheds, recreation, 

 and other purposes; failure to achieve expected 

 improvements in utilization; new uses and other 

 unforeseen demands for wood. Unassumed 

 changes in prices of timber products in relation to 

 competing materials can materially affect both 



'8 The reader who wishes more detailed explanation and 

 discussion of this complex subject should refer to the 

 section on "Timber Supply Outlook," p. 475. 



