92 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICAS FUTURE 



and medium projected timber demands. The esti- 

 mated margin gradually increased from zero in 

 1953 to a maximum in 2000 of 15 percent of the 

 sawtimber cut related to lower projected demand 

 for timber products. The sawtimber margin in 

 relation to the medium projected demand for tim- 

 ber products increased from zero in 1953 up to 11 

 percent by 2000. The margin was increased with 

 the passage of time because of the hkehhood that 

 unforeseen new uses of wood and withdrawals of 

 land from commercial timber production would 

 gradually increase as population pressures in- 

 tensify. 



In absolute amounts the allowances added to 

 timber cut were 2.8 and 10.3 billion board-feet of 

 sawtimber in 1975 and 2000, respectively (table 

 55). From 1953 to 2000 the margin averaged 

 shghtly more than 5 percent of the sawtimber cut 

 in relation to both lower and medium projected 

 demands as shown below: 



Margins in percent of 

 sawtimber cut 



Lower Medium 



projected projected 



Period or year: demand demand 



1953 



1953-1964 1 1 



1965-1974 4 3 



1975 5 4 



1975-1984 7 6 



1985-1999 12 9 



2000 15 11 



Average 6. 5 5. 2 



Timber Removal Larger Than 1952 Cut 



Projected timber removal is substantially 

 greater than 1952 timber cut because projected 

 timber demand is much larger than 1952 consump- 

 tion (table 55). For example, projected sawtimber 

 removal for all species to meet the medium pro- 

 jected demand for timber products is 40 and 116 

 percent greater, respectively, in 1975 and 2000 

 than was 1952 timber cut. These and other rela- 

 tionships by species groups and for both lower and 

 medium projected timber demand are as follows: 



Change in sawtimber 

 removal from 1952 cut 



1975 2000 



Medium timber demand: (percent) (percent) 



Eastern hardwoods -1-51 -|-141 



Eastern softwoods 4-28 +135 



Western species 4-41 +90 



All species +40 +116 



Per capita +2 +23 



Lower timber demand: 



Eastern hardwoods +29 +82 



Eastern softwoods -j-H 4-77 



Western species 4-22 +43 



All species +20 +63 



Per capita —12 —7 



In terms of growing stock, the relation of pro- 

 jected timber removal to 1952 timber cut is very 

 similar to the above percentage changes for saw- 



timber. For example, in terms of medium timber 

 demand, projected timber removal for all species i 

 in 1975 and 2000 is 36 percent and 104 percent 

 greater, respectively, than timber cut in 1952. 



Although these are large absolute increases, 

 when considered on a per capita basis the indica- 

 tions are quite different. Thus although saw- 

 timber removal in 1975 at the medium timber 

 demand would be 40 percent greater than the 1952 

 cut, it represents only a 2 percent increase per 

 capita. Likewise the 116 percent increase in 2000 

 over 1952 corresponds to a 23 percent increase per 

 capita. For the lower timber demand, the in- 

 creases of 20 and 63 percent in 1975 and 2000 are 

 equivalent to per capita decreases of 12 and 7 

 percent. 



Needed Growth and Inventory 



Having now developed some indications of 

 growth capacity and having summarized the 

 timber removals needed to meet future timber 

 demand, it is possible to make the first of three 

 basic comparisons. This is the amount of growth 

 and inventory needed to sustain future timber 

 demands in relation to 1952 growth and 1953 

 inventory. The two other basic comparisons are 

 listed in steps 4 and 5 at the beginning of the 

 discussion of timber supply outlook. 



Estimates of needed growth in relation to 1952 

 growth, realizable growth, and projected growth 

 (to be discussed later) are all summarized in table 

 56. One of the most significant overall findings 

 is that the growth of sawtimber in 2000 needed to 

 sustain medium, projected timber demands is about 

 105 billion board-feet. This is reasonably close 

 to the realizable growth of 101 billion board -feet, 

 and both are a little more than twice the 1952 

 growth. The sawtimber growth needed by the 

 end of the century appears to be reasonably 

 attainable because it is close to the estimate of 

 realizable growth. 



Needed Growth Much Larger Than 1952 

 Growth 



The needed growth to meet medium timber 

 demands would be 68 and 105 billion board-feet 

 ot sawtimber in 1975 and 2000, respectively. 

 These are increases of 44 and 122 percent over 

 1952 levels (tables 56 and 57, fig. 44). Growth 

 needs to meet lower level timber demands for the 

 same years would be 59 and 79 billion board-feet, 

 or increases over 1952 of 24 and 67 percent. 

 Sawtimber growth of each of the three species 

 groups likewise would need to increase over 1952 

 to meet either the lower or medium projected 

 timber demands by 2000. Of most significance 

 is the estimate that growth of eastern softwood 

 sawtimber would need to increase either 90 or 154 

 percent over 1952 in order to meet lower or 



.Jill- 



