96 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Table 60. — Timber volume, 1953, needed inventory, and projected inventory 





Growing stock 



Live sawtimber 



Item 



Total 



Eastern 

 hardwood 



Eastern 

 softwood 



Western 

 species 



Total 



Eastern 

 hardwood 



Eastern 

 softwood 



Western 

 species 



Inventory, 1953 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 

 517 



372 

 511 



416 

 627 



604 

 709 



573 

 499 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 

 151 



104 

 152 



114 

 186 



241 

 357 



230 



289 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 

 74 



110 

 147 



124 

 181 



96 

 116 



82 

 7 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 

 292 



158 

 212 



178 

 260 



267 

 236 



261 

 203 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 2,057 



1,404 

 1,894 



1,808 

 2,796 



2,041 

 2,002 



1,934 

 968 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 381 



358 

 503 



482 

 769 



542 

 732 



498 

 366 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 242 



449 

 598 



635 

 970 



310 

 385 



292 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 1,434 



Needed inventory: 



Lower projected demand: 



1975 



597 



2000--- - 



793 



Medium projected demand: 



1975 - - - 



691 



2000-- -- - --- -- -- - 



1,057 



Projected inventory: 



Lower projected demand: 

 1975 - -- 



1, 189 



2000 



885 



Medium projected demand: 

 1975 



1, 144 



2000 -- 



602 







1 Negligible. 



trends in forestry continue. This comparison is 

 the most basic of the entire report. 



In projecting growth and inventory two basic 

 assumptions are made. These assumptions must 

 be fully understood and borne in mind throughout 

 the subsequent comparisons in order that con- 

 clusions drawn will not be misleading. These 

 assumptions are (1) annual timber removal would 

 climb steadily from 1952 to meet the removal 

 necessary to supply demand in each year until 

 2000, and (2) progress in forestry would continue 

 as indicated by recent trends so that by 2000 it 

 would be considerably more widespread and 

 intensive than in 1952. 



The assumptions with respect to forestry are not 

 that forestry would continue at the same intensity 

 as in 1952. The assumption is that forestry will 

 continue to intensify and expand between 1952 and 

 2000 at about the same rate that it has been 

 intensifying and expanding during the years im- 

 mediately preceding 1952. This assumption as to 

 acceleration in forestry is tangibly expressed in 

 terms of higher growth and lower mortality rates. 

 Growth projections were made at periodic inter- 

 vals between 1952 and 2000. The last growth 

 projection interval began in 1985. The assump- 

 tion for this last period under medium timber de- 

 mand was a gross growth rate 25 percent higher 

 and a mortality rate 22 percent lower than 1953 

 rates (table 290, p. 486). 



The assumption that annual timber removal 

 would climb steadily from 1952 to meet the re- 

 moval necessary to supply demands each year 

 until 2000 also needs interpretation. The tneo- 

 retical application of this assumption to medium 

 projected timber demand results in great excesses 



of timber removal over growth as the year 2000 

 approaches. As explained later, the large dis- 

 parity between projected and needed growth by 

 2000 should be considered as indicative only and 

 not suggestive of a timber famine. The most 

 useful purpose that such projections serve is to 

 indicate the magnitude of the forestry effort that 

 will be needed to reduce the gap between growth 

 and removal if we are to sustain timber demands 

 at reasonable prices. 



In appraising projected growth and inventory, 

 consideration is given to '1) projected growth in 

 relation to needed growth; (2) the level at which 

 growth and removal could be sustained in balance 

 if forestry trends accelerate as assumed; (3) the 

 outlook for timber quality; and (4) projected 

 inventory in relation to needed inventorJ^ 



Projected Growth Far Short of Needs 

 If Medium Demands Are Met 



Estimates of projected growth are summarized 

 in table 56 by species groups for sawtimber and 

 growing stock, and for both lower and medium 

 projected timber demand in 1975 and 2000. These 

 estimates of projected growth also may be readily 

 compared with comparable estimates of needed, 

 realizable, and 1952 growth in table 56. 



The interpretations given to these projections of 

 future growth are perhaps the most important in 

 the entire Timber Resource Review. The pro- 

 jections indicate that if medium levels of timber 

 demand are met each year, sawtimber growth by 

 1975 would show a 14-percent deficit in relation to 

 needed growth and a 76-percent deficit by the 



