A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



99 



1 Table 61. — Relation oj projected sawtimber growth 

 to needed growth, 1975 and 2000 





Change in projected growth from 

 needed growth 



Species group 



1975 



2000 





Lower 

 projected 

 demand 



Medium 

 projected 

 demand 



Lower 

 projected 

 demand 



Medium 

 projected 

 demand 



Eastern hard- 

 woods 



Percent 

 + 54 

 -15 

 -13 



Percent 

 + 23 

 -29 

 -27 



Percent 

 + 16 

 -29 



-28 



Percent 

 -58 



Eastern softwoods - 

 Western species 



0) 

 -61 



All species 



+ 4 



-14 



-16 



-76 



' Under the assumptions, projected growth would be 

 negligible (table 56) ; thus the theoretical percentage 

 change from needed growth would approach a minus 100 

 percent. 



The above indications must be interpreted with 

 care, especially those pertaining to 2000 and the 

 indicated sawtimber growth in that year if medium 

 timber demands are met. The reason for diffi- 

 culty in correctly interpreting projected growth 

 is that when the gap between projected and needed 

 growth becomes sufficiently large, additional eco- 

 nomic forces will modify projected timber removal 

 and net growth. 



No one knows at exactly what point or when 

 net growth would become so low in relation to 

 needs that timber removal would be less than 

 assumed. It is realistic to expect, however, that 

 at some point prices would rise, timber removal 

 would become less than assumed, forestry would 

 intensify at a greater rate than assumed, growth 

 and timber supply would become larger, and thus 

 the gap between projected growth and needed 

 growth would become less. The trends of timber 

 removal and growth that are believed more likely 

 to actually occur after 1975 are also shown in 

 figure 45. Nevertheless, carrying these projec- 

 tions of growth through 2000 under the basic 

 assumptions of meeting timber demand each year 

 and a continuation of forestry trends has real 

 value, because it demonstrates that medium tim- 

 ber demands will not be met unless forestry efforts 

 are intensified and expanded much more rapidly 

 than has occurred during recent years. 



The projections of growth also make it apparent 

 that either the medium or lower level of timber 

 demands could be sustained reasonably well until 

 1975 in terms of total sawtimber growth. How- 

 ever, even by then there could be a softwood saw- 

 timber deficit of growth in relation to needs of 



about 15 percent if lower timber demands were 

 met each year and 29 percent if medium demands 

 were met. 



Projected growth of growing stock shows similar 

 trends to those for sawtimber although not so 

 pronounced. If medium timber demands were 

 met every year there would be a surplus of grow- 

 ing-stock growth in 1975 of 16 percent in relation 

 to growth needed, but a 45-percent deficit by 2000. 

 Softwoods would show about a 20-percent deficit 

 in 1975 and a much greater gap by 2000. 



Lower Timber Demands Would Not Be 

 Met If Growth and Removal Kept in 

 Balance 



In view of the indicated deficit of projected 

 gi'owth in relation to growth needed if either the 

 lower or medium timber demands are met con- 

 tinuously after 1975, the question naturally arises: 

 What sawtimber removal can be sustained after 

 1975 if a balance is struck and forestry accelerates 

 as suggested by recent advancements? In order 

 to develop such an estimate at as high a point as 

 possible, assumptions with respect to intensifica- 

 tion of forestry were held the same as for the pre- 

 ceding projections of timber growth, but estimates 

 of timber removal were made as favorable as 

 possible by assuming a further substantial switch 

 in patterns of consumption from softwoods to 

 hardwoods. 



In the projections of demand for timber prod- 

 ucts, there was included as much transfer of 

 demand from softwoods to hardwoods as believed 

 might reasonably occur. Whereas hardwoods 

 made up about 20 percent of the 1952 consump- 

 tion, it was estimated that by 2000 they would 

 comprise about 30 percent. In tlie projections of 

 sustained removal, it was assumed that all excess 

 sawtimber hardwood growth would be utilized 

 and that removal of softwood sawtimber would 

 never exceed combined growth of eastern soft- 

 woods and western species. This sudden switch 

 in consumption patterns assumed to occur be- 

 tween 1975 and 1985 is probably not realistic but 

 was done in order to develop as high a level of 

 sustained sawtimber removal as theoretically 

 possible. 



Projected sawtimber growth and timber re- 

 moval would be approximately in balance until 

 1975 if lower timber demands were met (table 61 

 and fig. 46). For this reason the projections as 

 to sustained timber growth and removal under 

 the modified assumptions explained above do not 

 start until after 1975. The projections of sus- 

 tained sawtimber removal and their relation to 

 sawtimber removal needed to supply lower timber 



