A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



101 



Quality Outlook 



To appraise the quality outlook, both the need 

 for quality timber and prospective supplies of 

 such timber should be considered. The continued 

 need for quality wood is largely a matter of judg- 

 ment. One reason for this is that there is no 

 single standard of quality. Different products 

 require different wood qualities, and quality 

 means different things to different persons. Sub- 

 stantial recognition must be given to the very 

 considerable technological progress that has been 

 made to overcome poor quality of wood as a 

 raw material. There will continue to be much 

 technological progress in this direction. 



Some quantitative indication can be developed 

 of continued need for quality wood by comparing 

 projected demand for millwork, siding, furniture, 

 and veneer and plyTvood to 1952 consumption for 

 these items. Such products are largely, although 

 not entirely, manufactiired from high-quality logs. 

 The medium level projected demand for these 

 items in 1975 and 2000 is 65 and 143 percent 

 greater respectively than 1952 consumption. 

 Thus, by 2000 there is a projected demand for 

 these items needing substantial portions of high- 

 quality material of nearly 2}^ times that of 1952. 

 Even if a lower proportion of these items requires 

 high-quality material in the future than in the 

 past, there will still be a very substantial demand 

 for quality logs. 



Tree size reflects quality in a general way and 

 thus sawtimber is a general indication of quality. 

 In 1952, 84 percent of the timber cut came from 

 sawtimber trees. Although some allowance was 

 made for a shift from sawtimber to poletimber in 

 projecting timber demand, it is estimated that 

 80 percent of timber demands by 2000 will still 

 require sawtimber-size trees. These two indica- 

 tions suggest that, despite past and prospective 

 technological progress to overcome poor quality, 

 futixre demand for quality logs, although possibly 

 less in relation to total demand than in the past, 

 will probably be substantially greater in absolute 

 terms. 



Quantitative information on the inventory of 

 good quality trees is sketchy, but the trend in the 

 supply of good quality standing timber appears to 

 be downward. Indications of this include: 



(1) Repeat surveys covering about one-third of 

 all commercial forest land in the East show that 

 greater proportions of sawtimber volumes ai'e 

 occiuring in the smaller trees than formerly. 

 The reason is that timber cut is concentrating on 

 the bigger trees — ^this in turn is another evidence 

 of the need for quality material. 



(2) Cm-rent eastern inventories show that high 

 proportions of timber volume are in trees of small 

 size and poor in log grade. If allowed to grow, 

 many of these small trees, of course, will increase 

 in size and improve in quality. 



(3) Timber species preferred because of certain 

 special properties are being gradually replaced by 

 less useful species. 



(4) There is a very large volume of cull trees in 

 eastern hardwoods. 



(5) The excess of sawtimber removal over pro- 

 jected growth for eastern softwoods suggests 

 dejClining trends in the inventory of quality 

 material. The same situation with respect to 

 western species also suggests declines in the quality 

 of western timber. The latter, of course, is to be 

 expected as the old-growth sawtimber of the West, 

 which is the largest reservoir of high-quality 

 timber in the Nation, is gradually harvested. 



All in all, the outlook for quality appears to be 

 (a) a continuing need for quality timber which is 

 perhaps less relatively than in the past but more 

 in terms of total demand; and (b) a declining trend 

 in the supply of quality timber if projected 

 demands are met and forestry accelerates no faster 

 than indicated by recent trends. These two indi- 

 cations suggest that meeting the demand for 

 quality timber may be more difficult in the future 

 than in the past despite technological progress. 



Projected Inventory Would Not Con- 

 form to Needs 



The inventory that could be expected if timber 

 demands are met each year and if forestry assump- 

 tions previously described prevail are summarized 

 in table 60. The contrast between projected and 

 needed sawtimber inventories show that projected 

 inventory would be greater than needed for eastern 

 hardwoods and for western species in 1975 under 

 both the lower and medium timber demand (table 

 62); but projected inventories would be less than 

 needed for eastern softwoods in 1975 at both 

 demand levels. The same situation would con- 

 tinue to 2000 if lower timber demands were met, 

 but if medium demands were met the inventory of 

 all three species groups would theoretically be 

 deficient by that time. 



The most significant conclusions to be drawn 

 from comparisons of projected and needed in- 

 ventories are (a) sawtimber inventories of eastern 

 softwoods will not build up as rapidly as needed, 

 and (b) the conversion of western old growth to 

 more productive young forests and a better dis- 

 tribution of age classes will not have been accom- 

 plished rapidly enough to achieve the needed 

 growth of western species by 2000. 



As in the projections of growth, the estimates 

 of future sawtimber inventories which show such 

 large deficiencies in relation to needed inventories 

 in 2000 at the medium level of timber demand 

 should be considei'ed to be suggestive only. The 

 same quahfications with respect to these large 

 discrepancies that were explained in the discussion 

 of projected growth apply equally well to pro- 

 jections in inventory. 



