102 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Table 62. — Relation of projected sawtimher in- 

 ventory to needed inventory, 1975 and 2000 





Change in projected inventory from 

 needed inventory 



Species group 



1975 



2000 





Lower 

 pro- 

 jected 

 demand 



Medium 

 pro- 

 jected 

 demand 



Lower 

 pro- 

 jected 

 demand 



Medium 

 pro- 

 jected 

 demand 



Eastern hard- 

 woods 



Eastern soft- 

 woods 



Western species 



Percent 

 + 51 



-31 



-F99 



Percent 



+ 3 



-54 

 + 66 



Percent 

 + 46 



-36 



+ 12 



Percent 

 -52 



(') 

 -43 



All species 



+ 45 



+ 7 



+ 6 



-65 



' Under the assumptions, projected inventory would be 

 negligible (table 60) ; thus the theoretical percentage 

 change from needed inventory would approach a minus 100 

 percent. 



The Outlook in Brief 



From the preceding summary of the outlook for 

 timber supply certaia generalized deductions can 

 be drawn. First, however, it is necessary to recall 

 the assumptions on which most of the discussions 

 were based, namely, (a) timber removal would 

 climb steadUy and timber demands would be met 

 each year, and (b) forestry would continue to 

 intensify and accelerate as indicated by recent 

 trends. The deductions which appear justified 

 are: 



1 . There is sufficient standing timber, plus what 

 will be grown, to supply either medium or lower 

 timber demands each year until 2000. This can- 

 not be done, however, without serious adverse 

 impacts on timber inventories and growth. 



2. There is no timber famine in the offing but 

 some shortages may be expected, especially of 

 softwood sawtimber of the preferred species and 

 grades, and especially after 1975. There is no 

 danger of timber becoming a surplus crop. 



3. Prompt and very substantial expansion and 

 intensification of forestry in the United States is 

 necessary if timber shortages are to be avoided 

 by 2000. This is due to increases in futiu-e timber 

 demands over present consumption largely because 

 of expected expansion of the population rather 

 than increases in per capita demand. The neces- 

 sary intensification in forestry will have to be in 

 addition to what could be expected by extending 

 the trends in forestry improvements of recent 

 years. This acceleration in forestry will have to 

 come soon, and very largely within the next two 



decades, because otherwise it wiU be too late for 

 the effects to be felt by 2000. The degiee of 

 forestry intensification needed is much larger and 

 far greater than the general public or most experts 

 are beheved to have visualized. 



4. If there is a 15 -percent reduction in sawtimber 

 consumption per capita and if there could be a 

 drastic switch in the consumption pattern from 

 softwoods to hardwoods, timber removal and 

 growth could be kept in balance after 1975 even 

 if there is no intensification of forestry beyond 

 recent trends. 



5. The American people may find themselves 

 getting along with somewhat less timber than 

 would be needed to meet medium projected timber 

 demand, and there may be a rise in the price of 

 timber products in relation to competing materials. 



6. The effects, if they occur, of not meeting 

 timber demand, of growth deficiencies, of shortages 

 in some softwood species, sizes, and grades, and 

 rises in relative price probably wUl not be felt very 

 much until after 1975. 



7. Much progress has been made in forestry in 

 recent years. The undesirable eft'ects of not meet- 

 ing timber demand and of rising prices need not 

 occur if the American people achieve within the 

 next few years a degree of forestry on all commer- 

 cial forest land roughly equivalent to that which 

 is practiced today on the better managed lands. 



Forestry is not a short-time proposition. Where 

 this Nation stands in timber supply in the year 

 2000 will depend largelj^ on actions taken during 

 the next two decades. Recent encouraging for- 

 estry trends must continue. But this is not 

 enough. Acceleration of these trends is vital, and 

 to a degree that will startle many of us. There 

 are no grounds for complacency. If the timber 

 resources of the Nation are to be reasonably 

 abundant at the end of the century and if our 

 children and their children are to enjoy the same 

 timber abundance that we ourselves know, 

 standards and sights must be raised. The poten- 

 tial of the land is adequate. The opportunity is 

 there. 



TWENTY-TWO HIGHLIGHTS 



1. Continued expansion oj the Nation's economy is 

 expected. 



Any appraisal of future supply and demand for 

 natural resources involves a choice between such 

 basic assumptions as prosperity or depression, 

 population growth or decline, rising or falling 

 standards of living, and peace or war. The 

 Timber Resource Review is geared to a continued 

 rapid rise in population, economic prosperity and 

 higher living standards as reflected in a continued 

 rise in gross national product, and expectations of 

 peace but continued military preparedness. 



The most fundamental assumption is that popu- 



