A SUMMARY OF THE TIMBER RESOURCE REVIEW 



103 



lation of the United States will be 215 million in 

 1975, and 275 or 360 million in 2000, as contrasted 

 to an estimated 157 million in 1952. These are 

 increases of 75 and 130 percent for 2000 above 

 1952 population. The 275 million population 

 estimate for 2000 is essentially conservative, re- 

 flects a rate of increase slightly less than prevailed 

 during the first half of the century, and is below 

 the midpoint of projections of Census Bureau 

 estimates. It was used in projecting lower and 

 medium timber demand. The 360 million popu- 

 lation is a top-level estimate used only in pro- 

 jecting upper timber demand. 



Gross national product, which is the total 

 national output of all goods and services, is esti- 

 mated to increase from $354 billion in 1952 to 

 $630 billion in 1975 and $1,200 or $1,450 billion 

 in 2000. Although these would be large increases 

 of 240 and 310 percent from 1952 to 2000, tbe 

 former results from a somewhat lower rate of in- 

 crease than occurred in the 45-year period 1910-55. 

 As in population projections, the higher estimate 

 of gross national product for 2000 was used only 

 in developing upper timber demand. 



2. Potential demand jor timber products is strikingly 

 upward. 



Timber products consumption, both past and 

 present, furnishes some indication as to future 

 demands. Lumber still makes up well over half 

 of all industrial wood consumed although the 

 long-time trend in lumber's share of the total has 

 been downward. Per capita lumber consumption 

 has decreased more than 50 percent since 1900; 

 but total lumber consumption has held up and 

 even increased substantially since the 1930's. 



Both total and per capita consmnption of pulp- 

 wood has increased rapidly. Since 1920, per 

 capita consumption of pulpwood has tripled and 

 total consumption has increased 5 times. Pulp- 

 wood now constitutes over one-fourth of all in- 

 dustrial wood consumed, whereas in the early 

 1900's it made up only 2 percent. 



Wood is not losing out in the market place. 

 Since 1935 both total and per capita consumption 

 of industrial wood have increased. Industrial wood 

 consumption was at an all-time high in 1952 and 

 per capita consumption was up to the 1929 level. 



Three projections of timber demand were de- 

 veloped. Lower and medium projections were 

 prepared for both 1975 and 2000; an upper pro- 

 jection was prepared only for 2000. Medium 

 timber demand is considered the basic projection. 

 It is based on specified assumptions as to popula- 

 tion, gross national product, and price, and lower 

 and upper projected timber demand are variants 

 from it. Lower timber demand is based on the 

 same assumptions as is the medium projection 

 with respect to population and gross national 

 product, but assumes that future prices of timber 

 products will rise substantially faster than prices 



of competing materials. The upper projection 

 is the same as the medium in assuming that future 

 prices of timber products will parallel the price 

 trends of competing materials, but differs from 

 the medium projection in assuming higher popu- 

 lation and gross national product. Medium pro- 

 jected timber demand offers a desirable objective 

 from the viewpoint of public policy. 



Medium projected demand of all timber prod- 

 ucts indicates increases over 1952 consumption of 

 32 and 83 percent for 1975 and 2000, respectively. 

 In actual amounts the consumption of 12.3 biUion 

 cubic feet in 1952 would rise to an estimated 16.2 

 in 1975 and 22.4 billion cubic feet in 2000. The 

 two principal components of timber demand, 

 lumber and pulpwood, would by 2000 show in- 

 creases of 90 and 182 percent over 1952. 



Although these are large increases, they appear 

 quite conservative when expressed on a per capita 

 basis. Projected per capita demand of all timber 

 products taken together would be less than 1952 

 consumption for each of the three levels of pro- 

 jected demand and in both 1975 and 2000, with 

 the single exception of the medium projected de- 

 mand in 2000 when there would be a 4-percent 

 increase in per capita consumption. In other 

 words, if each person consumed the same amount 

 of wood in 2000 as occurred in 1952, consumption 

 would exceed both the lower and upper timber 

 demands and would closely approach the medium 

 projection. 



For lumber, the per capita relationships of pro- 

 jected demand to 1952 consumption are the same 

 as for all timber products; but projected pulp- 

 wood demand indicates per capita increases at all 

 levels and in both 1975 and 2000. 



The large upswing in total timber demands over 

 1952 is attributable very largely to expected 

 growth in the population rather than to increases 

 in per capita demand. 



3. The United States must continue to rely chiefly 

 on domestic timber resources. 



The United States, including all of Alaska, 

 controls 8 percent of the forested area of the world 

 and 15 percent of the timber under exploitation. 

 Although the area is less than that of some nations, 

 the timber volume is greater than that of most. 

 Canada, for example, has more forest area but 

 less timber than the United States, including 

 Alaska. There are about 4 acres of forest land 

 per capita in the United States, about 8 acres 

 per capita in the U. S. S. R., and about 66 acres 

 per capita in Canada. 



In terms ot the softwood timber resource, the 

 United States has about 14 percent of the world's 

 area and 20 percent of the timber volume. Al- 

 though Canada has a greater softwood area, it 

 has about half as much softwood volume as the 

 United States. More than half of the world's 



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