108 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICAS FUTURE 



21. Projected growth is Jar short oj needs. 



Comparisons of the growth and inventory that 

 may be expected with the growth and inventory 

 that may be needed is of much greater significance 

 than comparing needs with 1952 levels. Pro- 

 jected growth and inventory are the amounts that 

 may be expected in 1975 and 2000 under the as- 

 sumptions that (a) timber removals increase 

 steadily each year to meet rising demands, and 

 (b) forestry continues to intensify and expand at a 

 rate indicated by recent trends so that by 1975 

 and 2000 it will be considerably more widespread 

 and intensive than in 1952. 



If medium timber demands are met each year, 

 projected sawtimber growth in relation to needed 

 growth would show a deficit of 14 percent by 1975 

 and 76 percent by 2000. If lower instead of 

 medium demands are met, there would be a slight 

 surplus of sawtimber growth in 1975 but a 16- 

 percent deficit by 2000. 



Eastern softwoods and western species would 

 have either substantial or very large sawtimber 

 growth deficits under both lower and medium 

 levels of timber demand in both 1975 and 2000. 

 Eastern hardwoods would show a sawtimber 

 growth surplus beyond 1975, but would fall short 

 of needed growth under the medium timber 

 demand by 2000. 



The very large growth deficits are suggestive 

 only and are believed unlikely to occur to the ex- 

 tent indicated. At some point growth would be- 

 come so low in relation to needs that prices would 

 rise, timber removal would be less than assumed, 

 forestry would intensify faster than assumed, 

 growth would increase, and the actual deficit 

 would be less than indicated. The projections, 

 nevertheless, have real value because they show 

 that neither lower nor medium timber demands 

 can be sustained if forestry is intensified no faster 

 than anticipated from recent trends. 



If sawtimber growth and removal are kept in 

 balance after 1975, under assmnptions of con- 

 tinuing recent trends in forestry and by a drastic 

 consumption switch from softwoods to hardwoods, 

 the level of balance that can be sustained by 2000 

 is 9 percent below the lower projected timber 

 demand. This also would mean a 15-percent 

 reduction in per capita consumption below 1952. 



If either lower or medium timber demands are 

 met yearly and forestry progresses no faster than 

 recent trends indicate, sawtimber inventories of 

 eastern softwoods will not build up as rapidly as 

 needed, and the conversion of western old growth 

 to more productive young forests and a better 

 distribution of age classes will not have been ac- 

 complished rapidly enough to achieve the needed 

 growth of western species by 2000. 



22. The overall outlook. 



(1) The Nation's need for timber to supply 

 demands of a growing population will be strikingly 

 greater than today or at any time in the past. If 

 per capita use of timber products increases only 4 

 percent by 2000 as indicated by medium projec- 

 tions of demand, total wood consumption wiU be 

 83 percent greater than in 1952, primarily be- 

 cause of an estimated 75-percent increase in popu- 

 lation. There is the potential to meet that need 

 if forestry knowledge and skills are apphed 

 promptly and with utmost vigor and determina- 

 tion. 



(2) There is sufficient standing timber, plus 

 what will be grown, to supply either medium or 

 lower timber demands each year until 2000. This 

 cannot be done, however, without serious adverse 

 impacts on timber inventories and growth unless 

 there are much more rapid advancements in 

 forestry than indicated by recent trends. 



(3) There is no timber famine in the offing, but 

 some shortages can be expected, especially of 

 softwood sawtimber of the preferred species and 

 grades, and especially after 1975. There is no 

 danger of timber becoming a surplus crop. 



(4) Prompt and very substantial expansion and 

 intensification of forestrj^ in the United States is 

 necessary if timber shortages are to be avoided by 

 2000. This is due to increases in future timber 

 demands over present consumption — largely be- 

 cause of expected expansion of the population 

 rather than increases in per capita demand. The 

 necessary intensification in forestry will have to be 

 in addition to what could be expected by extending 

 the trends in forestry improvements of recent 

 years. This acceleration in forestry wiU have to 

 come soon, and very largely within the next two 

 decades, because otherwise it will be too late for 

 the effects to be felt by 2000. The degree of 

 forestry intensification needed is much larger and 

 far greater than the general public or most experts 

 are believed to have visualized. 



(5) If there is a 15-percent reduction in saw- 

 timber consumption per capita and if there could 

 be a drastic switch in the consumption pattern 

 from softwoods to hardwoods, timber removal and 

 growth could be kept in balance after 1975 even if 

 there is no intensification of forestry beyond 

 recent trends. 



(6) The American people may find themselves 

 getting along with somewhat less timber than 

 would be needed to meet medium projected 

 timber demand, and there ma}^ be a rise in the 

 price of timber products in relation to competing 

 materials. 



(7) The effects, if they occur, of not meeting 

 timber demand, of growth deficiencies, of shortages 



