FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



James C. Rettie 

 Dwight Hair 



INTRODUCTION 



Preceding sections have dealt with the Nation's 

 supply of timber and with certain factors affecting 

 that supply. In the present section, attention is 

 directed to the demand for timber, especially the 

 quantities of timber that might — under various 

 explicit and reasonable assumptions — be de- 

 manded by the United States economy in the year 

 1975 and in 2000. Long-range demand projections 

 are indispensable for intelligent timber policy and 

 program formulation, both private and public, be- 

 cause the growing of timber from seedling to mer- 

 chantable tree is an enterprise that extends over 

 periods of 20 to 100 years or more. 



The approach is to obtain first an overall view 

 of how the Nation's economy is likely to expand 

 over the next 20 years and the next 45 years. This 

 mvolves consideration of probable increases in 

 population and in goods-and-services output and 

 raw-materials input. Second, attention is given to 

 the place of timber products in the economy as 

 indicated by past trends in consumption. From 

 these and from price and other considerations, pro- 

 jections of future end uses of each of the major 

 timber products are developed. With the outlook 

 for their end uses determined, it is then possible to 

 estimate projected demands for timber products. 

 Finally, after allowing for net imports and antici- 

 pated improvements in timber utilization, the pro- 

 jected demands for timber products are translated 

 into projected demands for live sawtimber and 

 growing stock on commercial forest land. 



ANTICIPATED GROWTH OF THE 

 NATION'S ECONOMY BY 1975 AND 

 2000 



Forecasts as to the probable size of the Nation's 

 economy 10 to 20 years hence have been made by 

 a number of agencies.*'^ Insofar as 1975 is con- 

 cerned, the economic projections made for the 



"^ Joint Committee on the Economic Report, U. S. Con- 

 gress. Potential Economic Growth of the United States 

 During the Next Decade. Washington, D. C. 1954. 



The President's Materials Policy Commission. Re- 

 sources for Freedom. Vols. I-V. Washington, D. C. 1952. 



Colm, Gerhard, and Young, Marilyn. The American 



Timber Resource Review are generally in line with 

 those made by others. With respect to the year 

 2000, it has been necessary to make independent 

 projections because other agencies have not 

 extended their estimates that far. 



The reliability of any projection tends, of course, 

 to become less the farther it is extended into the 

 future. There is an ever-increasing risk that it 

 may turn out to have been much too high or much 

 too low. In most of the long-term projections so 

 far made and tested by time, the principal fault 

 has been that they have fallen short of the growth 

 actually experienced. Some of the projections de- 

 veloped in this study are probably subject to the 

 same tendency. Yet no long-term projection is an 

 irrevocable commitment. It can be reviewed and 

 revised at any time. 



The following appraisal of the probable size of 

 the Nation's econom}^ by 1975 and 2000 is neces- 

 sarily teclmical and quite detailed. If the reader 

 does not wish to go into the detail of probable in- 

 creases in population, and in goods-and-services 

 output and raw-materials input, he should pass 

 over this discussion and turn to the portion of the 

 report dealing with the Basic Assumptions, page 

 369. Nevertheless, this background on anticipated 

 growth of the economy will contribute signifi- 

 cantly to better understanding of the projections 

 of timber demand and is recommended. 



The Population Upsurge Has Not 

 Abated 



The unexpected upsurge in the birth rate, begin- 

 ning in the early 1940's and continuing through 

 1955, has made a shambles of the population pro- 



Economy in 1960. National Planning Assoc, Washington, 

 D. C. 1952. 



Dewhurst, J. Frederick, and Associates. America's 

 Needs and Resources. The Twentieth Century Fund, New 

 York, N. Y. 1955. 



National Bureau of Economic Re.search. Long-Range 

 Economic Projections. Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, 

 N. J. 1954. 



Owen, Wilfred. A Mid-Century Look at Resources. The 

 Brookings Institution. Washington, D. C. 1954. 



357 



