360 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



While the logic of making these extensions by 

 holding all factors constant from 1975 onward 

 may appear to be rather questionable, the results 

 that would have been obtained by variations of 

 the assumptions would have covered about the 

 same range of possibilities. If, for example, the 

 fertility rates for Series AA and Series A had been 

 lowered somewhat, it would have been equally 

 logical to lower the mortality rates progressively 

 from 1955-60 onward. These two adjustments 

 would tend to offset each other. 



Population Figures Chosen for Use in 

 This Study 



The population projections used in this analysis 

 of timber demand are the Census Series B and AA 

 as published for 1975 and as extended to 2000: 



1975 2000 



(million (milliim 

 persons) persons) 



21.5 275 



228 360 



Series B and its extension^. 

 Series A A and its extension. 



While it might be argued that one projection of 

 timber demand should logically be based on Series 

 C, or that an upper projection should rest on 

 Series A rather than Series AA, choice of assump- 

 tions is a matter of judgment. In view of the 

 cun-ent outlook for fertilit}' and mortality rates, 

 the lowest series is rejected. The AA series is 

 selected over Series A in order to indicate the 

 upper realm of current population-growth possi- 

 bilities. 



With reference to 1952 population, the increases 

 projected are 37 or 45 percent to 1975 and 75 or 

 129 percent to 2000. The latter percentages 

 bracket the change that occurred in the first half 

 of this century. Between 1900 and 1950 the 

 Nation's population grew from 76 million to 152 

 million, or 100 percent. 



Output of All Goods and Services 

 Will Greatly Increase 



Total annual output of all goods and services, 

 or gross national product, has more than doubled 

 at 25-year intervals throughout the past century. 

 Barring the outbreak of atomic warfare, or some 

 other disaster of that magnitude, there is every 

 reason to expect that gross national product will 

 continue to increase. The extent of the increase 

 will largely determine future requirements for 

 raw materials, including timber products. To 

 gage the increase, several factors must be con- 

 sidered: The size of the labor force, the length of 

 the workweek, and average productivity per 

 man-hour. 



Size of Labor Force Determined Chiefly 

 by Size and Age-Distribution of Pop- 

 ulation 



The portion of the population in the labor force ®^ 

 varies somewhat from time to time. There is a 

 marked difference between the percentage of men 

 and women who participate. There are also 

 marked differences in the participation rates of 

 various age groups of botli sexes. In 1955, for 

 example, 82 percent of men 14 3^ears of age and 

 older were in the labor force,™ and 35 percent of 

 women : 



Male Female 



Age group: (percent) (percent) 



14-19 49.0 29.7 



20-24 89.5 45.8 



25-34 96.5 34.8 



35-44 96.9 41.4 



45-54 95.1 43.5 



55-64 86. 4 32. 2 



65 and over 38.5 10.3 



14 and older 82.3 34.5 



Looking ahead into the future, it is probably 

 safe to anticipate some moderate decrease in the 

 participation rates of young people as the result 

 of increased schooling. Also, there may be some 

 comparable decrease in the rates of persons beyond 

 the age of 55 attributable to pension and retire- 

 ment systems now established or that will be 

 established. This tendency might, of course, 

 be offset by medical discoveries which would 

 improve the health of older people and therebj' 

 make retirement less attractive for many. 



With a Series B population of 215 million bv 

 1975 and 275 million by 2000, with tlie age aud 

 sex distribution implicit in these projections, and 

 with participation rates considerably reduced as 

 suggested above, the labor foice may amount to 

 about 85 million by 1975 and to about 110 million 

 by 2000. Tlie reduction for increased schooling 

 is less for 2000 than for 1975 because the 2000 

 population projection contains a smaller per- 

 centage of persons of school age. 



If population should grow at the much faster 

 rate implied by Series AA, the future labor force 

 would also be much larger. With 228 million 

 people by 1975 and 360 million by 2000, the same 

 method of estimation indicates labor forces of 

 86 million and 133 million. The comparatively 



S8 The labor force includes that portion of the population 

 14 years of age and older that is: (a) productively engaged 

 in all types of civilian economic activity, (b) serving in the 

 Nation's armed forces, and (c) out of employment but 

 available for and willing to accept employment. 



"" Bureavi of the Census. Annual Report of the Labor 

 Force 1955. Current Population Rpts. Ser." P-50, No. 

 67, p. 4. March 1956. (Adjusted to total population 

 basis.) 



