FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



361 



small difference in the two 1975 labor force 

 estimates is due to the fact that the labor force 

 of that time will consist almost entirely of persons 

 born prior to 1960. Whatever the population of 

 the future may be, it can have very little effect 

 upon the size of the labor force until after 1975. 



Possible Distribution of Future Labor 

 Forces 



Proceeding from the total -labor-force projec- 

 tions, it is necessary to make several corollary 

 assumptions as to liow those future labor forces 

 would likely be engaged. 



On the assumption that military preparedness 

 will continue, the United States is expected to 

 maintain its military forces near their present 

 manpower strength — perhaps 3.5 million persons 

 by 1975 and 4.0 milhon by 2000. However, these 

 figures indicate a decreasing percentage of the 

 total labor force. 



Another basic assumption is tliat the Nation's 

 economy will continue to function at a high level 

 of employment. This does not mean that there 

 will be no unemployment or minor cyclical 

 fluctuations, but it does rule out major depressions 

 like that of the 1930's. People change employ- 

 ment when they desire; often they are unemploj^ed 

 between jobs. Technological and other changes in 

 industry may result in temporary or permanent 

 layoffs. The degree of unemployment may be 

 somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 to 4 percent 

 of the labor force. The figure of 4 percent is used 

 here. At that rate, the number of unemployed 

 in 1975 would be about 3.5 million, regardless of 

 which of the two labor-force projections is used, 

 and the number of employed civilians would then 

 be 78 million. In the year 2000 with the total 

 labor force at 110 million, unemployment would 

 be about 4 million and employed civilians about 

 102 million; with the total labor force at 133 

 million and allowing for around 5 million unem- 

 ployed, the employed civilians would number 

 124 million. 



Finally, with no clear evidence that any great 

 change in Federal, State, and local governmental 

 services is in prospect, it has been assumed that 

 civilian employment in the private sector of the 

 economy will remain at about 90 percent — and 

 in the government sector 10 percent — of the 

 employed civilian labor force, about as it is today. 

 Taking this factor into account, the private 

 civilian labor force projected to 1975 would be 

 70 million with a Series B population or 71 miUion 

 with Series AA. Projected to 2000, the corre- 

 sponding numbers become 92 million and 112 

 million. 



Annual Average Workweek Is 

 Shortening 



Fifty ,years ago the usual workweek in private 

 industry was 54 to 60 hours; in agriculture it was 

 even longer. By 1929 most industrial workers 

 were putting in about 48 hours on the job and 

 by 1954, the average in manufacturing was 39.5 

 hours, including the time of persons v/ho, for one 

 reason or another, did not spend full time on the 

 job.^' (The hours scheduled for work were 

 somewhat more.) In agriculture the workweek 

 has also shortened but not to the same extent. 

 For 1953, it has been estimated that the workweek 

 in agriculture averaged 47.4 hours, compared to 

 a weighted average workweek in all private 

 employment of 40.2 hours.^^ 



It is reasonable to expect that the standard 

 40-hour week of scheduled work will have become 

 almost universal by 1975. Obseivance of 7 

 conventional holidays will certainly continue. 

 There will be more earned vacations and sick 

 leave. If earned vacations average 15 days and 

 sick leave or other time off averages 10 days, the 

 average workyear would be approximately 1,820 

 hours or 35 hours per week. If earned vacations 

 and other leave do not increase to the extent here 

 suggested, there is likely to be some further 

 shortening of the standard 8-hour day or of the 

 standard 5-day week. In either case, an average 

 workweek of 35 hours by 1975 is quite possible. 



Looking ahead to the year 2000, further 

 shortening of the workweek is to be expected. 

 If the scheduled workday is shortened to 7 hours, 

 with earned vacation and other leave in the amount 

 suggested above, the workyear would average 

 about 1,600 hours or 30.8 per week. Reduction 

 of the standard workweek to 4 days of 8 hours per 

 day, with the same earned vacation and other 

 leave, would shorten the workyear to about 1,400 

 hours or about 27 per week. Regardless of how 

 the hours will be shortened, it appears that the 

 workyear in 2000 will not exceed 1,560 hours or 

 30 per week. 



For purposes of gross national product pro- 

 jections, to which this discussion is leading, these 

 average annual workweeks, 35 hours in 1975 and 

 30 hours in 2000, are assumed. If hours of work 

 are not reduced to this extent, gross national 

 product may exceed the projections that will 

 presently be made. 



"■' Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of 

 Labor. Economic Forces in the U. S. A. In Fads and 

 Figures, p. 23. Washington, D. C. 1954. 



" Joint Committee on the Economic Report, U. S. 

 Congress. Potential Ecnomic Growth of the United States 

 During the Next Decade. Washington, D. C. 1954. (From 

 data contained in table 1, p. 4.) 



