362 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Average Man-Hour Productivity Is 

 Increasing 



Estimates of man-hour productivity, available 

 only for the private sector of the economy, are 

 measured in terms of physical output of goods and 

 services per man-hour of labor input. An increase 

 in man-hour productivity reflects not only im- 

 provement in the efficiency of labor, but also 

 improved efficiency in the utilization of basic 

 natural resources and of capital equipment of all 

 kinds." 



Estimates of man-hour output in the private 

 sector of the United States economy show rapid 

 and sustained increases (table 197). Compared 

 to the 1910-14 average, $1.11, the 1949-53 average 

 ($2.49) indicates a productivity increase averaging 

 2.09 percent compounded annually. The average 

 annual rate of increase between 1940 and 1953 

 was 2.52 percent. The possibility that productive 

 efficiency will continue indefinitely to increase at 

 a rising compound rate is hardly conceivable. 

 The man-hour output curve is more likely to 

 level off. The problem is when. 



Technological factors favor a further stepup 

 in the rate of increase. Substitution of mechanical 

 energy for human energy, automation, electronics, 

 and many other developments may bring rapid 

 increases in man-hour output. On the other hand, 

 scarcity and higher cost of basic raw materials 

 may retard the rate of increase. The United 

 States' dependency on foreign raw materials is 

 likely to increase substantially in the next 20 to 

 45 years. ^* Meanwhile other nations will also 

 be stepping up their demands. Competition will 

 intensify and a larger portion of productive effort 

 will have to go into extraction of nonreplaceable 

 low-grade raw materials and into the production 

 of those which are replaceable. This means more 

 effort per unit of finished product. 



Various productivity assumptions have been 

 made in connection with other projections of gross 

 national product. Colm, for example, assumed 

 that man-hour productivity will increase at the 

 rate of 2.5 percent annually during the decade 

 1950-60." The President's Materials Policy Com- 

 mission assumed a rate of 2.5 percent for the 

 period 1950-75.^" The Staff of the Joint Com- 

 mittee on the Economic Report for 1953-60 as- 

 sumed a rate of 2.8 percent." The Stanford 

 Research Institute, on the other hand, has made 



Table 197. — Estimated average physical output per- 

 man-hour in the private sector of the United 

 States economy, 1910~5S 



[At constant 1953 prices] 



" Kendrick, John W. National Productivity and Its 

 Long-Run Projection. In Natl. Bur. Econ. Res. Long- 

 Range Economic Projection, pp. 67-104. Princeton Univ. 

 Press, Princeton, N. J. 1954. 



" The President's Materials Policy Commission. Re- 

 sources for Freedom. Vol. I. Washington, D. C. 1952. 



" Colm, Gerhard, and Young, Marilyn. The American 

 Economy in 1960, p. 19. National Planning Assoc, 

 Washington, D. C. 1952. 



" Publication cited, Vol. II, p. 111. 



" Publication cited. Rate derived from table 1, p. 19. 



Year 



Dollars 



Year 



Dollars 



Year 



Dollars 



1910__.. 



1. 06 



1925-.. 



1.44 



1940. ... 



1. 91 



1911_... 



1.07 



1926-.-_ 



1. 46 



1941__._ 



2. 01 



1912 



1. 15 



1927___. 



1.46 



1942.... 



2.01 



1913__ _ 



1. 12 



1928 



1. 46 



1943__._ 



2. 03 



1914__._ 



1. 13 



1929_.._ 



1. 49 



1944 



2. 17 



1915.__. 



1. 12 



1930___. 



1. 44 



1945 



2.24 



1916-._ 



1. 13 



1931_.__ 



1.48 



1946.. _ 



2. 15 



1917__^, 



1. 11 



1932.. ._ 



1.42 



1947.. _ 



2. 13 



1918____ 



1. 11 



1933__._ 



1. 38 



1948 



2.23 



1919 



1.21 



1934-_.„ 



1.51 



1949 



2. 30 



1920 



1. 21 



1935.. _. 



1. 62 



1950__.. 



2.47 



1921__ _ 



1. 19 



1936..-. 



1. 67 



1951 



2. 49 



1922__ _ 



1. 28 



1937____ 



1.72 



1952 



2. 56 



1923___. 



1.35 



1938.. _. 



1.76 



1953.... 



2. 64 



1924____ 



1.37 



1939.... 



1. 82 







Source: Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 

 U. S. Congress. Potential Economic Growth of the United 

 States Economy During the Next Decade. Table B-3. 

 p. 34. Washington, D. C. 1954. 



a gross national product projection which implies 

 that man-hour productivity will increase at the 

 rate of only 1.42 percent annually during the 

 period 1953-75.^* 



It is assumed here that the average annual 

 increase of man-hour productivity during the 

 period 1949-53 to 1975 will be 2.5 percent and 

 that between 1975 and 2000 it will average just 

 over 2.0 percent. At those rates, man-hour out- 

 put in 1953 prices will increase from the 1949-53 

 average of $2.49 to $4.50 bv 1975 and to $7.50 

 by 2000. 



Gross National Product Projections 



With a population of 215 million in 1975 and 

 275 million in 2000 — and taking into account 

 corollary assumptions about the labor force, the 

 workweek, and private man-hour productivity — 

 the Nation's annual output of all goods and serv- 

 ices, valued at 1953 prices, is expected to increase 

 from the 1955 level of $380.7 billion to about 

 $630 billion by 1975, and to about $1,200 billion 

 by 2000 (table 198). The increases are 65 percent 

 during the forthcoming 20 years and 215 percent 

 in the next 45 years. 



With a population of 360 million by 2000 and 

 with a bigger labor force, but other assumptions 

 remaining the same, a gross national product of 

 $1,450 billion is anticipated. The increase would 

 be 281 percent. 



'^ Stanford Research Institute. Arnerica's Demand for 

 Wood 1929-75. Weyerhaeuser Timber Co., Tacoma, 

 Wash. (Rate derived from table 1, p. 12.) 



