FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



363 



Table 198. — Projections oj gross national prodvxit to 1975 and 2000 



[Dollars at 1953 prices] 



Item 



Unit of measure 



Series B population 



215 million 

 in 1975 



275 million 

 in 2000 



Series A A population 



228 million 

 in 1975 



360 million 

 in 2000 



Private employment 



Average worky ear 



Hours of employment 



Product per man-hour 



Private gross national product. 



Total gross national product ' _ 



Million man-years. 



Hours 



Billion man-hours. 

 Dollars 



Billion dollars 



_do- 



70 



1,820 



127, 400 



4. 50 



570 



630 



92 



1, 560 



143, 500 



7. 50 



1,080 



1,200 



71 



1,820 



129, 200 



4. 50 



580 



645 



112 



1,560 



174, 700 



7.50 



1,300 



1, 450 



' Assuming that gross national product from the private sector of the economy v/ill be about 90 percent of total gros 

 national product. 



By way of comparison, the actual increase in 

 gross national product over the past 45 years 

 (1910 to 1955) — in spite of two world wars and a 

 major depression — amounted to 262 percent.'^ 



Per Capita Disposable Income May 

 Double by 2000 



Gross national product contains a number of 

 components. One that is extremely useful in 

 projecting some of the end uses of timber is 

 disposable personal income, i. e., monetary income 

 of private persons after payment of direct personal 

 taxes. Between 1929 and 1955, disposable per- 

 sonal income per capita, in 1953 dollars, increased 

 50 percent. A further large increase can be ex- 

 pected during the next 45 years. What that in- 

 crease may be depends partly on future levels 

 of gross national product, of population, and 

 of taxation. 



In the early 1930's, disposable personal income 

 averaged more than 80 percent of gross national 

 product. But in the 1950's, it has averaged less 

 than 70 percent (table 199). For the future, the 

 basic assumption of military preparedness implies 

 no large cut in personal taxation. Furthermore, 

 prospective growth of the population will neces- 

 sitate increased expenditures for education, high- 

 ways, and other public services. Hence it appears 

 reasonable to assume that disposable personal 

 income will remain at about 70 percent of gross 

 national product. Projections made on that basis 

 (table 200) imply that per capita disposable 

 income will increase 38 or 31 percent by 1975 and 

 101 or 86 percent by the year 2000. 



The implications of this much increase in the 

 average buying power of individuals over the next 

 45 years are obvious. People will want more 



'• Gross national product of 1910, valued at 1953 prices, 

 is estimated at $105.1 billion. See Joint Committee on 

 the Economic Report, publication cited, table B-4, p. 35. 



T.\BLE 199. — Disposable personal income as percent 

 of gross national product, 1929-55 



[Derived from current-dollar estimates] 



Year 



Per- 



Year 



Per- 



Year 



Per- 





cent 





cent 





cent 



1929 



79. 6 



1938 



77. 1 



1947 



72.8 



1930 



81.6 



1939 



77.3 



1948 



72.9 



1931 



83.7 



1940 



75. 6 



1949 



73. 1 



1932 



83.2 



1941 



73.9 



1950 



72.3 



1933 



81.7 



1942 



73.8 



1951 



68.9 



1934 



80. 



1943 



69. 4 



1952 



68. 4 



1935 



80.4 



1944 



69. 4 



1953 



68. 5 



1936 



80. 



1945 



70.4 



1954 



70.7 



1937 



78. 2 



1946 



76. 1 



1955 



1 69. 5 



* Preliminary. 



Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. National 

 Income, 1954, P- 22-23; and Economic Report of the 

 President, 1956, pp. 165 and 170. 



Table 200. — Disposable personal income in 1952 

 with projections to 1975 and 2000 



[In 1953 dollars] 









Personal 



Per 



Per 





Popula- 



Gross 



dispos- 



capita 



capita 



Year 



tion 



national 



able 



dispos- 



mcrease 







product 



income 



able 

 income 



over 

 1952 





Million 



Billion 



Billion 









persons 



dollars 



dollars 



Dollars 



Percent 



1952 



157 



354 



1 238 



> 1,517 





1975 



215 



630 



441 



2, 100 



38 



1975 



228 



645 



452 



1,982 



31 



2000 



275 



1,200 



840 



3,055 



101 



2000 



360 



1,450 



1,015 



2,819 



86 



' Economic Report of the President, 1954, p. 178. 

 ington, D. C. 1954. 



Wash- 



