366 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



consumer purchases of goods made from the 

 physical-structure materials are curbed more 

 drastically than purchases of foods, fuel materials, 

 and services. It is equally probable that military 

 mobilization has the opposite influence. 



Since it is assumed that depression and war will 

 be avoided during the next 45 years, the general 

 trend of the relationship of physical-structure 

 materials input to gross national product is 

 relevant. Using the estimating equation repre- 

 sented by the trend line in figure 108, a first 

 approximation of the expected inputs of these 

 materials is obtained as follows: 



nNP Inputs 



-. (billion (.billion 



Year: dollars) units) 



1975 630 8.8 



1975 645 9.0 



2000 1,200 15.5 



2000 1,450 18.5 



Compared to 1952, the 1975 estimates represent 

 increases of 48 and 51 percent; for 2000, they are 

 are 161 and 211 percent higher. 



Increased materials input will certainly put 

 much heavier pressure on supply, stimulating more 

 complete utilization of new raw materials, and 

 more recycling of used materials. Such trends 

 in conservation of new materials have been in 

 effect for some time, and to that extent they are 

 reflected in the estimates cited above. But there 

 is a real probability that far more strenuous effort 

 to conserve new materials will be forthcoming. 

 What future savings of new raw materials (over 

 and above what would accrue from continuation 

 of past trends) are likely to be can hardly be esti- 

 mated statistically. But it is conservative to 

 make rather generous allowances for savings — 

 particularly in the period beyond 1975. There- 

 fore, the first approximations of future physical- 

 structure materials input are adjusted downward*^ 

 as shown in table 202. Compared to 1952, the 

 adjusted 1975 increase becomes 40 percent if 

 population is 215 million and 43 percent if popula- 

 tion reaches 228 million. The 2000 increases are 

 105 percent with 275 million persons and 148 

 percent with 360 million.*^ 



Table 202. — Input of physical-structure materials 

 in 1952 with projections to 1975 and 2000 



^ The adjusted figures represent approximately the levels 

 of input to be expected if the 1900-1952 average annual 

 rate of increase in per capita input continues until the year 

 2000. That rate was 0.53 percent compounded. One of 

 the difficulties in the logic of this approach to estimation of 

 future inputs is that per capita input did not increase during 

 the first half of the period 1900-1952. All of the increase 

 occurred in the latter years when it was much higher than 

 the average for the period as a whole. Projections based 

 on the long-term average rate of increase therefore involve 

 a future rate of increase considerably less than the rate 

 of recent years. Such a lower rate of increase would, 

 however, not be inconsistent with the expected trend 

 toward fuller utilization of both new and recycled materials. 



** Adjusted to a 1950 base, the projections of physical- 

 structure materials input for 1975 are of the same general 

 order of magnitude as those developed by the President's 

 Materials Policy Commission. 











Input 









Total 



Increase 



per 



Input 



Year 



GNP 



input 



over 



million 



per 









1952 



GNP 

 dollars 



capita 





Billion 



Billion 











dollars 



units 



Percent 



Units 



Units 



1952 



350 



5.9 





169 



37.8 



1975 



630 



8.3 



40 



132 



38.6 



1975 



645 



8.5 



43 



132 



37. 3 



2000 



1, 200 



12. 2 



105 



102 



44. 3 



2000 



1,450 



14.7 



148 



101 



40.8 



If industrial wood, i. e., all timber products ex- 

 cept fuelwood, holds its 1952 relative position in 

 the Nation's input of physical-structure materials, 

 something on the order of these percentage in- 

 creases would apparently be required. 



Since consumption of fuelwood has been de- 

 clining for a long time, projections of energy- 

 material input have little relevance (fig. 109). 

 The uses of this kind of fuel are limited to heating 

 and cooking on farms, to fireplaces, and to pro- 

 duction of heat and power in some wood-processing 

 plants. It is doubtful that requirements for 

 energy materials in general have any real bearing 

 upon demand for fuelwood. 



TIMBER PRODUCTS IN THE 

 NATION'S ECONOMY 



Timber occupies an important place in the 

 Nation's economy. The best information avail- 

 able indicates that about 1 out of every 19 em- 

 ployed persons (5.4 percent) in 1952 obtained bis 

 living from activities connected with the growing, 

 protection, harvesting, processing, transportation, 

 distribution, and fabrication of timber products 

 (table 203). Wages and salaries generated in 

 1952 by various timber-connected economic ac- 

 tivities are estimated at about $11 billion and na- 

 tional income at about $15 billion,** or about one 

 dollar out of every twenty of total national income 



^ In addition to wages and salaries of employees, in- 

 cludes corporate net income derived from timber-connected 

 activities and net income to the proprietors of unincor- 

 porated enterprise. It does not include allowance for 

 depreciation nor for the business taxes borne by these ac- 

 tivities. Also it does not include the net income from 

 sales of standing timber from public lands and from 

 "other" private ownerships, or from the fabrication of 

 timber products outside timber-connected industry: Ac- 

 tivities such as boat building, building and repair of rail- 

 road cars, fabrication of wooden containers not done in box 

 factories, and a large number of similar activities. Income 

 not included in the estimates probably adds up to .several 

 hundred million dollars. 



