FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



371 



„,^ VENEER LOGS AND BOLTS^^ 



1952 



Figure 112 



From specific combinations of these major 

 assumptions and from lesser assumptions, three 

 different series of estimates, or projections, are 

 developed: "medium projected demand," "upper 

 projected demand," and "lowar projected de- 

 mand." Medium projected demand is the basic 

 projection. The other two are modifications. 



The medium projection rests on the assumptions 

 that (a) the United States will have 215 million 

 people by 1975, and 275 million by 2000 and (b) 

 trends in future prices of timber products wUl be 

 generally parallel to trends in prices of competing 

 materials. The gross national product estimates 

 associated with these population figures are $630 

 billion by 1975 and $1,200 billion by the year 2000 

 (in terms of 1953 prices). 



The upfer projection is based on the same price 

 assumption, but the population assumed for 2000 

 is 360 million. The gross national product esti- 

 mate associated with this population figure is 

 $1,450 billion. No upper projection is made for 

 1975 because such a projection would not be 

 appreciably higher than the medium projection. 

 The assumption for a 1975 upper projection would 

 be a population of 228 million and a gross national 

 product of $645 billion — neither greatly different 

 than the medium projection assumption of 215 

 million persons and $630 billion. 



The assumptions underlying both the medium 

 and the upper projections are that industrial wood 

 will maintain its present relative position in the 

 national economy of 1975 and 2000. 



The lower projection of timber-product demand 

 is based on the same population and gross national 

 product assumption as used for the medium pro- 

 jection. However, the lower projection price as- 

 sumption is that future prices of timber products 

 will rise substantially faster than prices of sub- 

 stitute materials. This presumably would lead to 

 extensive price-induced substitution of nonwood 

 materials for timber products and a declining role 

 for industrial wood in the national economy. 



With regard to future prices of timber products 

 the most clearcut assumption usable for purposes 

 of demand projections is that the trend in the 

 future price of the product under consideration 

 will generally parallel the price trend of materials 

 that may readily be substituted for it. Under 

 such conditions no appreciable amount of price- 

 induced substitution — either favorable or ad- 

 verse — is expected. However, this is not to say 

 there will be no change in the price of the product 

 under consideration. All it implies is that such a 

 change in price will not be greatly out of line with 

 concurrent changes in the prices of substitute 

 materials. The distinction just made is im- 



