FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



375 



Lumber for Use in Construction 



About thi-ee-fourths of the lumber consumed in 

 the United States in 1952 went into various types 

 of construction. Residential construction, farm 

 as well as nonfarm, absorbed an estimated 40 

 percent. There is no apparent reason to doubt 

 that residential construction will continue to be 

 the largest single use of lumber. The projections 

 of demand for lumber in residential construction 

 are derived from estimates of future requirements 

 for housing. 



Residential Construction May Reach 

 Three Million Units Annually by 

 2000 



The number of households requiring shelter at 

 any time prior to 1975 can be estimated with 

 reasonable confidence. The reason is that very 

 few persons not already born will be old enough by 

 1975 to have set up households of their own. 



For present purposes, it is necessary to consider 

 only the population age 20 and older. All four 

 series of Census population projections to 1975 

 contain the same figures for that segment of the 

 population (table 209). Extending these Census 

 Bureau population projections to 2000, according 

 to the method previously discussed, 190 million 

 persons will be age 20 or older 45 years hence, if 

 population totals 275 million; 210 million if 

 population reaches 360 million. 



Table 209. — Bureau oj the Cerifiuti projections oj 

 the population age 20 and older, 1956-75 

 [In thousands] 



Age group 



1955 



Projections to — 



(years) 



1960 



1965 



1970 



1975 



20 to 24 



25 to 29 



30 to 34 



35 to 39 



40 to 44 



45 to 49 



50 to 54 



55 to 59 



60 to 64 



65 and over 



10, 766 



11, 744 



12, 392 

 11,600 

 11, 209 

 10, 091 



8,809 



7,839 



6, 690 



14, 127 



11, 276 



10, 867 

 11,805 



12, 406 



11, 552 

 11,056 



9,800 



8, 382 



7,248 



15, 800 



13, 461 

 1 1, 355 



10, 900 



11, 791 



12, 327 

 11,369 

 10,714 



9, 307 



7, 735 



17,371 



17, 301 

 13, 556 

 11,390 



10, 887 



11, 715 



12, 132 

 11, 018 

 10, 177 



8,591 



18, 879 



19, 281 

 17, 422 

 13, 597 

 11,376 

 10,817 

 11, 530 

 11, 758 

 10, 466 



9, 398 



20, 655 



Total, all 

 ages 



105, 267 



110, 192 



116.330 



125, 646 



136, 300 



Note: Assuming that age-specific mortality rates will 

 continue to decline as in the 1940's until 1955-60 and re- 

 main constant thereafter until 1975; and that net immigra- 

 tion will continue at about the same level as prevailed from 

 the end of World War II to 1955. 



Source: Bureau of the Census. Revised Projections of 

 the Population of the United States, bi/ Age and Sex: 1955 to 

 1975. Current Population Rpts. Ser. P-25, No. 123. 

 October 1955. 



4.39296 0—58 25 



The average number of persons age 20 and older 

 per household has been decreasing quite steadily 

 throughout the past 65 years, from 2.69 in 1890 

 to 2.20 in 1955 (fig. 1 14) . The decrease since 1940 

 has been more rapid than previously. Part of 

 this can be accounted for in the decline of the 

 number of families living "doubled up" in one 

 dwelling unit. A larger percentage of older persons 

 now maintain independent households. The con- 

 tinuing extension of average span of life has also 

 increased the percentage of older-couple house- 

 holds and of households maintained by a surviving 

 spouse. That tends to reduce the average number 

 of adults per household. These trends can be 

 expected to continue, at least for a while. 



Projections of the number of households in the 

 United States population to 1975 (table 210) are 

 based on the Census estimates of population age 20 

 and older and on the assumed continuance of a 

 moderate downward trend in average number of 

 persons age 20 and older per household to 1975 

 and a slight further decrease to 2000. After 1975, 

 the number of households will be influenced 

 strongly by the fertility rates of 1955-80. 



The average annual net increase of households 

 during specified periods 1950 through 2000 is 

 projected as follows: 



Annual net in- 

 crease in tliou- 

 Period: ^ands 



1950-54 1,017 



1955-60 535 



196 1-65 760 



1966-70 1 , 020 



1971-75 1, 200 



1976-2000 { \\fQ 



The prospective slump in new household formation 

 between the present and 1965 will be due chiefly to 

 the low fertility rates of the 1930's. The upsurge 

 that will occur after 1965 will be due to the higher 

 fertility rates since 1940. 



Projections of the Nation's future stock of 

 housing must take into account, not only the 

 prospective number of households to be sheltered, 

 but also the normal margin of unoccupied housing. 

 In the 1950 Census of Housing *® this included the 

 following categories: 



Thou- As percent 

 sand of occupied 

 units units 



Resident temporarily away 127 0.3 



Seasonal dwelling units, nonfarm and 



farm 1,050 2.5 



Nonseasonal, not dilapidated, not for 



sale or rent ^ 743 1.7 



Total unoccupied units not on 



the housing market 1,920 4.5 



Nonseasonal, not dilapidated, for sale 



or rent 732 1.7 



Nonseasonal, dilapidated 505 1.2 



All unoccupied dwelling units 3, 157 7. 4 



«9 Bulletin H-Al, p. 12. 



I 



