FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



377 



Table 210. — Population age 20 and older, number 

 oj households, and average number oj persons age 

 20 and older per household 



Year 



Population 



age 20 and 



older ' 



Number of 

 households ^ 



Average 

 number of 



persons 



age 20 and 



older per 



household 



1890 



Thousand 

 34, 148 

 42, 314 

 53, 410 

 62, 668 

 75, 116 

 86, 364 

 99, 598 

 103, 991 

 105, 267 



3 110, 192 

 116,330 

 125, 646 

 136, 300 



fs 190, 000 

 I 210, 000 



Thousand 

 12, 690 

 15, 964 

 20, 256 

 24, 352 

 29, 905 

 34, 855 

 43, 554 



46, 893 



47, 788 



' 50, 100 

 53, 900 

 59, 000 

 65, 000 



91, 000 

 101, 000 



Number 

 2. 69 



1900 - - 



2. 65 



1910 . 



2. 64 



1920 



2. 57 



1930 



2. 51 



1940 



2. 48 



1950 -- - 



2. 29 



1954 . 



2. 22 



1955 



2. 20 



1960 



2. 20 



1965 - -- 



2. 16 



1970 



2. 13 



1975 



2. 10 



2000 



2. 08 





2. 08 



' Data for 1890 through 1950 from Census of Population; 

 estimate for 1954 by Bureau of the Census, Current Popu- 

 lation Reports, Ser. P-20, No. 56, March 1955. 



2 Data for 1890 through 1950 from 1950 Census of Hous- 

 ing, Report H-Al, p. xxvii. Estimates for 1950, 1954, 

 and 1955 by Bureau of the Census, Current Population 

 Reports, Ser. P-20, No. 59, August 1955. 



3 Projections 1960-75 from Bureau of the Census, Revised 

 Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age 

 and Sex: 1960 to 1975. Current Population Rpts. Ser. 

 P-25, No. 123, October 1955. 



< Based on estimated trend in average number of persons 

 age 20 and older per household, from foregoing data in 

 last column. 



5 Assuming total population of 275 and 360 milhon. 

 Extension of Census Bureau's 1960-75 projections. 



not exceed 8.0 percent of the number occupied in 

 1975, or 8.5 percent in 2000, the Nation's stock of 

 housing may increase about as follows: 



Average annual 

 increase (thou- 

 sand dwelling 

 units) 



1950 



1950-54 1, 160 



1955-60 577 



1961-65 820 



1966-70 1, 100 



1971-75 1,300 



1976-2000 { \']^Q 



Housing inven- 

 tory at end of 

 period (thou- 

 sand dwelling 

 units) 



45, 983 

 50, 640 

 54, 100 

 58, 200 

 63, 700 

 70, 200 

 99, 000 

 110,000 



For 2000, the lower figure is based on a total popu- 

 lation of 275 million, the upper figure on 360 

 million. 



The average annual net increase, of course, is 

 simply the number of new dweUing units required 

 to accommodate the net increase of households and 



to maintain a margin of unoccupied units only 

 slightly larger than existed in 1950. Other factors 

 to be taken into account are replacement of losses 

 and of housing that becomes unusable. 



Losses of housing by fire, flood, and windstorm 

 have recently averaged about 40,000 dwelling units 

 per year or about one-tenth of 1 percent of total 

 stock.^'' Much has been done over the years to 

 reduce fire hazards and to improve fire protection 

 systems; further progress is to be expected. But 

 on the other hand, the shift of population to sub- 

 urbs and to open country puts a higher percentage 

 of nonfarm dwellings beyond the reach of the more 

 efficient fire protection systems, and outside the 

 bounds of well-enforced fire-safety building codes. 

 Flood protection is being improved, but little has 

 yet been done to zone flood-plain areas against resi- 

 dential use or to remove existing residential struc- 

 tures from them. Increased pressure for residen- 

 tial building sites on flood-plain lands can be ex- 

 pected. Losses caused by hurricane and tornado 

 are even more difficult to avoid. 



On the whole, it appears unlikely that the rate 

 of loss will change much. Assuming it stays some- 

 where near one-tenth of 1 percent of the housing 

 stock, the average annual loss (and consequent 

 replacement requirement) may be: 



ThousaTid 



dwelling 



units 



1950-54 48 



1955-60 54 



1961-65 58 



1966-70 64 



1971-75 70 



1976-2000 I |j|j 



The two estimates for 2000 are based on housing 

 stocks of 99 million and 110 million dwelling units. 



The replacement of obsolete and wornout 

 housing, of housing demolished because of change 

 in land use, and of housing abandoned in shifts of 

 population is difficult to estimate. In 1953, some 

 5 million urban dwelling units apparently were in 

 such poor condition that demolition was justified.*^ 

 Spread over 10 years, this one job would call for 

 replacement at the rate of 500,000 units annually. 

 Meanwhile other urban housing would have 

 become substandard. In addition, there is a 

 sizable backlog of rural housing that does not 

 meet minimum standards. Replacement of all 

 presently wornout housing would push total 

 annual replacement to 600,000 or 700,000 units 

 over a 10-year period. 



While the progress so far made toward removal 

 of substandard housing is not great, there has 

 been more progress than appears on the surface. 

 The driving force is the migration of population. 



" U. S. Housing and Home Finance Agency. How Big Is 

 the Housing Job? Washington, D. C. 1951. 



*' President's Advisory Committee on Government 

 Housing Policies and Programs, Report to the President of 

 the United States, p. 111. Washington, D. C. 1953. 



