FUTUBE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



383 



work lumber was not separately estimated. 

 With allowances for millwork and with the addi- 

 tion of normal accessories (according to the 

 Stanford estimates) average lumber use per single- 

 family house built in 1950, according to the 

 HHFA study, totals about 10,800 board-feet: 



Average 

 lumber use 

 (.board-feet) 



Dimension lumber 5, 184 



Board lumber 2, 581 



Siding lumber 612 



Finish wood flooring 940 



Millwork 1, 050 



Accessories 400 



Total 10, 767 



Direct comparison of the Stanford and HHFA 

 estimates for 1950 is not entirely valid because 

 the latter was limited not only to single-family 

 dwellings, but also to those approved for financing 

 under Federal Housing Administration mortgage 

 insurance. Since houses financed with FHA in- 

 surance tend to be slightly smaller than those 

 built with conventional financing, the HHFA 

 included in its estimate an upward adjustment 

 in the average area of living space of 5 percent; 

 however, there is no way of knowiitg whether that 

 adjustment was adequate. Furthermore, sam- 

 pling errors of the two surveys are not given. 



Taking the HHFA estimate for single-family 

 dwellings at face value, allowing somewhat more 

 lumber per farm unit, and much less for multi- 

 family structures, and including some 44,800 two- 

 family units in the single-family, nonfarm cate- 

 gory, the weighted average for all types of housing 

 in i950 may have been about 10,100 board -feet: 



Thousand Board-feet 



Type : units per unit 



'Nonfarm, single-family 1, 198. 9 10, 767 



Farm 168.0 11,500 



Multi-family structures 197. 1 5, 000 



Weighted average 10, 119 



This estimate is somewhat lower than the Stanford 

 estimate of 11,700 board-feet of lumber per 

 dwelling unit built in 1950. But, to be conserva- 

 tive, it is chosen here as the basis for estimating 

 that the average lumber content per unit for all 

 housing built in 1952 (2 years later) was 10,000 

 board-feet. 



Projections of Demand for Lumber in New 

 Residential Construction 



The average lumber content of dwelling units 

 built 20 and 45 years hence can be estimated 

 only on the basis of explicit assumption and of 

 judgment. Trends in substitution of other timber 

 products for lumber must have due consideration. 

 There is also a definite trend toward dwelling 

 units of larger average size. 



Average lumber use per dwelling unit — assuming 

 a continuation of 1952 price relationships — may 

 decrease 10 percent to 9,000 board-feet by 1975 

 and 12 percent to 8,800 board-feet by 2000 (table 

 216). The smaller decrease for the latter part 

 of the period is based on the idea that substitution 

 for lumber may become technologically more 

 difficult as time goes on, and that producers of 

 lumber can be expected to intensify their efforts 

 to hold markets in residential construction. If 

 trends in substitution continue, the use per 

 dwelling unit of other timber products (such as 

 plywood, hardboard, and insulating board) will 

 just about double by 1975 and increase still 

 further by 2000. Nonwood material use will 

 increase moderately along with increases in the 

 average size of dwelling unit. On the other hand, 

 if the real price of lumber increases substantially, 

 average lumber use per dwelling unit may decline 

 to about 7,700 board-feet in 1975 and about 

 6,200 board-feet in 2000. 



Projected demand for lumber in new residential 

 construction is derived by multiplying the average 

 annual requirements for new delling units (pre- 

 viously developed according to population as- 

 sumed for 1975 and 2000) by the corresponding 

 lumber content per unit (table 217). Increases 

 over 1952 range from 18 percent under the lower 

 projection for 1975 to 69 and 100 percent under 

 the medium and upper projections for 2000. 



Million 

 board-feet 



Consumption in 1952 13, 010 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 15, 300 



Medium 18,000 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 15, 400 



Medium 22, 000 



Upper 26,000 



Table 216. — Estimated average use per dwelling 

 unit of lumber, and of other structure materials as 

 lumber-volume equivalent, 1952; and projections 

 to 1975 and 2000 • 



Year 



Lumber 





Board- 





feel 



1952 



10, 000 



1960 



9,700 



1965 



9,500 



1970 



9,250 



1975 



9,000 



2000 



8,800 



Other 



wood 



products 



Board-feet 

 equivalent 

 1, 130 

 1,500 

 1,600 

 1,800 

 2,000 

 2,200 



Nonwood 

 materials 



Board-feel 

 equivalent 

 9, 170 

 9,400 

 9,600 

 9,750 

 9,900 

 10, 300 



All 

 materials 



Board-feet 

 or equivalent 

 20, 300 

 20, 600 

 20, 700 

 20, 800 



20, 900 



21, 300 



' Assuming price relationships between lumber and other 

 materials remain approximately unchanged. 



439296 0—58- 



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